Election Time

Although it was never part of my formal scholarship, I have always been interested in Mexican politics. The interest comes from growing up in California and from Professor Gonzales' class in Mexican politics at UCLA. My friend M is reading this and saying to herself that I slept through that class, but I didn't.......

Lately, I've been much more interested in Latin American elections because of the recent rise of a class of leaders who are suspicious of U.S. policies and motives. It's one of the ironies of American foreign policy that we talk a lot about the need to create democracy around the world. We talk the talk, but when those democracies begin to question American policies, we find it much harder to walk the walk. Thus the Bush Administration is worried about the governments of Peru, Venezuela, and Brazil. Will Mexico be next on the list?

First off, it's worth noting that the victory of Vincente Fox's National Action Party seven years ago really did move Mexico into the ranks of nations with a functional two –party system. The PRI no longer runs the show, and that's good for Mexican democracy. Fox's chosen successor, Felipe Calderon, promises to build on Fox's policies, which everyone agrees helped to grow Mexico's middle class. Populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, running for the Democratic Revolutionary Party that he helped to found, has been openly critical of Fox and he's taken up a populist cry: that the poor are still being left behind. He's right of course: in Mexico as in the rest of the world, the gap between the rich and the poor is growing, not narrowing.

This morning, the BBC is reporting that the election is to close to call. But I have a good feeling for Lopez Obrador, who was great on the campaign trail and who seems to truly understand the plight of Mexico's underclass, without dismissing the needs of the middle class. I think that is a winning scenario. It's a tough job that he inherits if he wins. But he seems to understand that, which is really half the battle of leading well.