President Obama

Yesterday, I kept my son home from school to watch the Inauguration. It wasn't a snap decision ---- it's not like me to endorse a holiday from school ---- but I wanted to be sure that he watched the ceremony, that he heard the speech, and that he knew how important the day was.

Inaugural ceremonies in our democracy are always important; the peaceful transfer of power may be something that Americans take for granted but it cannot be taken for granted elsewhere in the world. And for that reason alone yesterday was special. But that's not why I wanted JT to watch Barack Obama in that moment that he went from Senator to President.

I wanted JT to watch that moment because I wanted him to be a part of the extraordinary promise that Obama's election fulfills. For a nation that once endorsed slavery based on skin color to choose a person of color for the highest office in the land doesn't mean that we've suddenly fixed our racial problems. But it is a giant step forward. So the election means that to me; it means that when I tell my son that what's inside us is what matters most I'm not proposing that he embrace a hollow idea. Instead, I'm passing on to him the inheritance of a nation getting ever closer to truly fulfilling what is still an extraordinary promise: all men are created equal.

Goodly

One of the pleasures of being a parent is listening to your child as he develops language. Inevitably, there are mispronunciations that come to mark a moment in your child's life and when you hear those words you remember that time. As JT has grown older, I've been amused at certain words he uses, not because of mispronunciations but because they are his own words.

One of those words is goodly.

Don't bother to look for it in your dictionary, because what you find there isn't quite what he means.

When JT declares something goodly, he means something happy, excellent, good. Goodly makes your heart sing. I suppose that a responsible parent might explain that goodly isn't really a word, but don't look for me to do that. I'm a big fan of goodly.

Since Barack Obama was declared the winner of the election on Tuesday night, I've been feeling goodly. I am incredibly proud of my nation. For the first time in several years, I am hopeful that my government will be a force for good in my nation and the world.

That's a goodly thing.

All Politics, All the Time: Prediction Edition

JT and I have already cast our ballot. That's my boy's finger on the Barack Obama button in my local voting booth early this morning. I want him to remember the pride of that moment for the rest of his life. I know that I will.

Read on for my predictions for the outcome of today's election, including some of the key congressional races of the day.

There are 435 seats in the House. Democrats currently control 235 seats; the GOP controls 199 seats. 1 seat is currently vacant, the result of the death of Representative Stephanie Tubbs-Jones in late August. All 435 of these seats are up for grabs this fall. Of the seats open because of retirement or folks seeking higher office, there are 7 open Democratic seats and 29 open Republican seats, so the odds tip in favor of the Democratic party continuing to hold the majority in the House. I predict a final balance of 260 Democrats and 175 Republicans in the House.

In the Senate, with 100 seats, the margin is slimmer. Technically speaking, both parties control 49 seats. Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut currently caucuses with the Democrats, as does Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. That gives the Democrats the edge in terms of committee chairs, with a functional 51-49 split. There are 35 seats up for election in the Senate this fall (both seats in Mississippi are up....see below for details). Of those races, 10 looked competitive as of September. As the election neared, 2 more became competitive, for a total of 12 critical races. And here the odds are intriguing: 11 of those at-risk seats belong to incumbent Republicans; only 1 incumbent Democrat is similarly uncomfortable. I predict a net Democratic gain of 9 seats, with final totals of 59 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders) and 40 Republicans, plus Joe Lieberman of Connecticut as the lonely Independent.

As it turns out, there is also a presidential race tomorrow. Who knew? I predict an Obama victory and I'll put our money where my (big) mouth is. The Electoral College will see Obama with 364 votes to McCain's 174. As to national vote percentages, there I expect to see the depth of the Obama victory with Obama scoring 51.5% of the national popular vote to McCain's 45.5%; the remaining 3% will be split by the third party candidates.

HOUSE

1. Alaska - AL: The Land of the Midnight Sun has only one seat in the House so election to it means running statewide. That's one of many reasons that Republican Don Young has been in the seat since winning a special election in 1973. This year, he's caught up in the Stevens scandal (see below) and he's vulnerable to Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, the State Senate Minority Leader. It's a Democratic year in Alaska and Democrat Berkowitz will win. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

2. Alabama – 02: Alabama Republican Representative Terry Everett is retiring from the House this year. He hopes to turn over his seat to Republican Jay Love, a state representative and ex-restaurant owner. But popular Montgomery Mayor and attorney, Democrat Bobby Bright, will ride the tail of high African-American turnout in south Alabama and he will win. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

3. Alabama – 05: Democratic incumbent Bud Cramer is retiring from Congress. Republican businessman Wayne Parker, the 1994 and 1996 nominee for this race is hoping that 2008 will prove his lucky year. It's not to be. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator, local physician, and veteran will hold the seat for the Democratic party.

4. Colorado – 04: Marilyn Musgrave has been a cultural warrior in Colorado politics; a proudly outspoken Republican social conservative. But in her most recent television ads asking the voters for a 4th term in the House, Musgrave doesn't mention that she's a Republican. More than anything else, that's a sign that Colorado-04 is up for grabs this year. Democrat Betsy Markey, who served as Democratic Senator Ken Salazar's regional director in the district and has business connections in northern and eastern Colorado, is thinking that this district can be plucked on behalf of the Democrats. And Markey is correct about that. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

5. Florida – 21: GOP Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-American representative for this Miami-area district, has been in the U.S. House since 1993. A lawyer and state legislator before he won the seat, Diaz-Balart has always gathered the support of the local Cuban-American community. But this year the Cubanos in Florida - 21 may select another of their own, Democrat Raul Martinez, the mayor of Hialeah and publisher of the Spanish newspaper El Sol de Hialeah. Democrat Martinez will prevail. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

6. Florida – 25: The news isn't much better for another member of the Diaz-Balart family, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is in his third term representing this Miami-area district. After serving for 14 years in the Florida state legislature, Diaz-Balart was elected to the House in 2002. His challenger is Democrat Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic chair and former head of Exodus Project, a successful refugee resettlement program. Garcia is a formidable opponent and will do his part to unseat the Diaz-Balart family, prevailing in Florida – 25. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

7. Kansas – 02: Frosh Representative Nancy Boyden was first elected to the House in 2006, with a wave of new Democrats who arrived that year. She represents most of eastern Kansas, including Topeka, Leavenworth, and Manhattan. She is well-liked in the state but Democrats never get an easy run is eastern Kansas and Republican Lynn Jenkins, a two-term Kansas State Treasurer ad ex-state representative, is hoping to send Boyden home. But 2008 is another good year for Democrats and Boyden will prevail. But it will be close.

8. Louisiana – 06: This race features a good-old-fashioned Southern wrestling match of partisan politics. The incumbent Democrat, Don Cazayoux, served in the Louisiana state house for three terms before he won election to the House in a May '08 special election held after the retirement of incumbent Representative Richard Baker. Cazayox's win was a bit of surprise – LA-06 has been held by the Republican party for years. Enter GOP state senator and physician Bill Cassidy, campaigning on a platform of keeping the GOP in charge of LA-06. Will raising the Republican flag be a mistake this election year? It will indeed. Cazayoux will hold in this close contest.

9. New Hampshire – 01: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is a frosh member of the House seeking re-election. Shea-Porter is the first woman the Granite State has sent to federal office. And the man she beat in 2006? That would be GOP-nominee Jeb Bradley, who is seeking a re-match this year. The race has been a tense affair but New Hampshire voters are feeling Democratic and they will return Shea-Porter to the House.

10. New Mexico – 01: New Mexico found all three of its House members seeking to be their party's nominee for the open Senate seat. So this seat, which currently belongs to Republican Heather Wilson, is open. Two young, dynamic, and popular leaders are vying to get the seat. Republican Darren White is the current Bernalilo County Sheriff and a former Secretary of Public Safety. He's also a veteran. Democrat Martin Heinrich is a former director of an environmental non-profit, an appointee to the New Mexico Natural Resources Board, and a current member of the Albuquerque City Council. Democrat Heinrich will prevail. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

11. Ohio – 01: Republican Steve Chabot has represented Ohio-01 since 1994. The district, in southern Ohio, includes Cincinnati and has been reliably Republican for the last 15 years. But the GOP has some troubles in Ohio this year and Democrat Steve Driehaus, a Peace Corp veteran, the state house minority whip, and a community development consultant, is under the impression that Chabot is vulnerable. Ohio is also a presidential swing state this year but that won't hurt Chabot, who will hold in a very close contest.

12. Ohio – 15: Republican Deb Pryce has run in tight races for most of her career in the House. This year she's retiring and the seat is up for grabs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran against Pryce in 2006, is in the race this year. Kilroy has name recognition in the district as a result of her previous run and her service as Franklin County Commissioner and on the Columbus School Board. Republican Steve Stivers, a state senator and Desert Storm War veteran, is hoping to hold the 15th for his party. This isn't his year and Kilroy will be headed to Washington, D.C. This race is a Democratic pick-up.






13. Pennsylvania – 10: Frosh representative Chris Carney won this district in 2006, one of a number of Democrats who swept into the House that year. Carney is a Navy Reservist and was a professor at Penn State at Scranton before he went to D.C. His opponent this year is businessman Chris Hackett. Pennsylvania-10 is a classical swing district in a swing state and Carney has served the district well. He will win the race.

SENATE

1. Alaska: Who knew that Alaska would become the focus of national politics in this year's election? Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens has been serving Alaska in the Senate since 1968, when he was appointed to serve the remaining term of his deceased predecessor. Since then, Stevens has been elected to 6 full terms on his own. This year, Stevens began the campaign under suspicion of a federal indictment for influence peddling. Stevens' ethical troubles made the race attractive to Democrats, who don't often win state-wide office in Alaska. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is hoping to change that. The jury convicted Stevens on all seven charges. Ouch. Begich is headed to Washington D.C. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

2. Colorado: Incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard is retiring. Two well-known Coloradons are facing off to replace him. The Democrat is Mark Udall, a former member of the State House, a current member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the son of Mo Udall, who served in the Colorado House delegation for 30 years. Udall is running against Republican Bob Schaffer, a former member of the Colorado State Senate, a 3-term ex-member of Congress, a current member of the Colorado State Board of Education and an '04 candidate for the Senate. Udall will prevail quite handily. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

3. Louisiana: Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is the only incumbent Democratic Senator expected to face a tough contest this fall. For a while it seemed that Landrieu might lose to Republican John Kennedy, the state's current Treasurer and a former Democrat. But things have evened out lately and Democrat Landrieu will prevail.

4. Minnesota: Republican Senator Norm Coleman is near the end of his first term in the Senate and he's struggled to remain popular in the state. Helping to pound the nails in his coffin is Democrat Al Franken, a native Minnesotan and former SNL actor, with a long-standing interest in politics. Franken has been campaigning for the seat for nearly two years. Gumming up the works is former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley, running as an Independent. Polls show this race to be tight, and both Coleman and Franken have taken a turn as the leader. A.P. Gov't expects this to be a very close race, but we give the narrow edge to Democrat Franken. This race is a Democratic pick-up.



5. Mississippi: Republican Trent Lott retired from the Senate last year and Republican Governor Haley Barbour appointed Republican Roger Wicker to serve until an election could be held. Wicker is seeking to hold the seat, facing off against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi Governor. Wicker and Musgrove are seeking to earn the seat for two more years. In the other Mississippi seat, incumbent Senator Thad Cochrane is expected to coast to victory. And the GOP will hold both Mississippi seats; Wicker will prevail.

6. New Hampshire: This year, the Granite State is being touted as a swing state for the presidential race. That prospect, a function of the state's increasing friendliness to Democrats, has placed incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu in a tough spot. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was the first woman to be elected Governor in the Granite State; she served for two terms and was well-liked. New Hampshire is Obama territory this year and Shaheen will benefit from that and her own track record of Granite State popularity. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

7. North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is seeking a second term as a Tarheel Senator and she started the race with a lead. But she's facing a tough challenger in the form of Democrat Kay Hagan, who has served in the state Senate for 10 years. Hagan is well-respected and well-liked in the state and Dole made some serious miscalculations in the last few weeks. Democrat Hagen will be headed to the Senate tonight. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

8. New Mexico: The retirement of incumbent Republican senator Pete Domenici has opened up an opportunity for another member of the Udall family, Democrat Tom Udall, son of conservationist Stewart Udall. Udall is facing off against Republican Tom Pearce. Both Udall and Pearce currently represent New Mexico in the U.S. House and both are well-liked. But it's a Democratic night and the Udalls can go ahead and plan a family reunion for Washington D.C. as Democrat Tom Udall joins his cousin Mark in the Senate.

9. Oregon: Republican incumbent Senator Gordon Smith is a centrist who is well-respected in his home state. In any other year, that would be enough to get him re-elected. But this isn't any other year and Oregon is expected to go big for Obama tonight. That makes the Senate race much more competitive and Democratic candidate and Oregon State House Speaker Jeff Merkely has taken advantage of the surge in his party's favor. Look for Merkely to oust Smith from the Senate tonight. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

10. Virginia: Republican incumbent Senator John Warner is retiring from office, leaving this seat up for grabs. One reason that Virginia has made a lot of presidential swing state lists has been the success of Democrat Mark Warner (no relation) in the Old Dominion. Warner was a popular Governor; these days he's seeking the Senate running against Republican Jim Gilmore, also a former Governor. Democrat Warner will coast to victory in the Old Dominion. This race is a Democratic pick-up.


Late-Breaking states:

Kentucky: The Blue Grass state has been electing Republican Mitch McConnell to the U.S. Senate for nearly as long as they've been growing blue grass (okay, only since 1984). He is the Senate Minority Leader and was widely expected to coast to an easy re-election victory. Enter Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a zillionaire healthcare executive who has deep pockets from which he happily funded his campaign. It's been a costly race and McConnell has found it to be far more competitive than he expected. The Democrats would dearly love to oust McConnell, if only for the symbolic value of kicking Republican leadership to the curb. Lunsford is a good candidate but he won't be good enough. Look for McConnell to score a slim victory tonight.


Georgia: Six years ago, Republican Saxby Chambliss won election to the Senate by arguing that the Democratic incumbent, Vietnam vet and triple amputee Max Cleland, wasn't patriotic. The Chambliss victory was a bitter pill for Democrats nation-wide because Cleland was such a decent man. Those very same Democrats are hoping that karma comes calling tonight, in the form of Democrat Jim Martin, a former state representative who has suddenly come within striking distance of Chambliss. High Obama turnout will be the swing factor in Georgia tonight and it will propel Democrat Martin to a first place finish. Georgia law requires him to win 50% + 1 to claim the seat. With a Libertarian on the ballot, that's a little more difficult to predict. This race will be a Democratic pick-up, though it may not be until the December runoff that Martin is the confirmed victor.

All Politics, All the Time: The Change I Believe In

Over the course of the past year I've pointed out many, many reasons that I think its time for a new leader in this country. By now, it's fundamentally clear that I support the election of a Democrat to the White House. But as the election has come to a close and poll after poll has suggested that Barack Obama is truly headed to the White House, I've been startled about just how good I feel about his potential election.

I spend my days teaching history and politics to a group of highly motivated and racially diverse young men and women. I believe in the power of the American dream and when I teach about the revolution and the claims to liberty made by our founding fathers and the unique structures of our representative democracy, I am always a proud of my country.

Of course, I never lose sight of the downside to the American story. The 1776 revolution did bring liberty to more people than any other nation in history. Even so, we still permitted slavery for vast numbers of men, women, and children. Women did not receive the franchise until 1920. It wasn't until 1965 that we truly guaranteed the right of African Americans to vote everywhere in this nation. And even since then, our record of improving race relations is not always worthy of praise or pride. For all the stories of American accomplishment when it comes to freedom and equality, there are times we have fallen badly short of the promise of our revolution.

When Barack Obama tells his life-story, he points out that his is a quintessential American story. It truly is. For the bi-racial son of an African immigrant father and a young, white Kansan mother to achieve election to the highest office in the land is a distinctly American story. It's proof of just how far the dream has come.

In the last few years, I haven't been very proud of my country's behavior in the world. I've wondered if we can undo the damage of the Bush White House at home and abroad. When Barack Obama promises change, I believe him. I respect the way he tells us it won't be an easy fix and promises to lead the way; to help us move ourselves forward. For the first time in a while, I expect to be proud of my president, proud of my government, and proud of my country. I can look at my son and at the diverse faces at my school and promise these young people that the American dream is alive and well; that our nation does stand for something great and grand in this world; something more than the sum of our parts.

That's the change I want and it's change that I can believe in. And tomorrow morning, when JT and I go to cast our ballot for Barack Obama, I'm going to feel incredibly proud to be an American. I'm going to stand in that voting booth with Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Lyndon Johnson, Martin Luther King, Rosa Parks, and countless others by my side. I'm going to do my part to make them proud of the United States.

Tomorrow, I'm going to feel like I am handing my son and other people's children a country that will once again delivers on its promises. I'm looking forward to it.

All Politics, All the Time: Preconditions

One of the most trying elements of the presidential campaign has been John McCain's accusations that Barack Obama is willing to meet with foreign leaders without preconditions.

The accusation has a history. It dates back to the Democratic primary, when Hillary Clinton suggested that Obama lacked the foreign policy experience to deal with so-called rogue nations. She said he demonstrated a naive willingness to meet with dangerous world leaders.

The accusation was silly then. In the last few months, it's become down-right irresponsible.

At the moment, the world's impression of the United States is that WE are a rogue nation, willing to invade other countries and throw our weight around in pursuit of our own self-interest. In fact, one of the most irresponsible policies of the Bush Administration has been its own intractability when it comes to talking with the world. From Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, with Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia in between, the last eight years have hardly been a demonstration of American leadership in the world. At best, we can hope that the world blames George W. Bush and not the American people for the colossal arrogance we have brought to international relations of late.

That's hardly the strongest hook on which to hang our hopes of a more peaceful and stable world. When Barack Obama says he's willing to meet with the world's leaders without preconditions, he simply means that American diplomatic channels are open, and he'd like to talk out the world's problems. It's not as if he's planning a White House slumber party with the likes of Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro (or his brother Raul, if Fidel is feeling poorly), Mahmud Ahmadinejad, Robert Mugabe, and the Janjaweed. He's saying: I have a State Department and a corp of diplomatic agents and so do you. Let's get them together and start talking.

Taking the initiative and talking out the world's problems. That's neither radical nor irresponsible. That's real leadership.

Despite Bush's efforts to the contrary, we remain the most powerful nation in the world. With power comes responsibility. And if we want to occupy the moral high ground in relations with the world, we must show ourselves to be a nation of reason and restraint, a nation with innovative ideas and a willingness to do the hard work of leading by being willing to talk.

Let the diplomacy begin.

All Politics, All the Time: Asking and Telling

In 1993, then-President Bill Clinton issued an executive order to end a long-standing Pentagon policy that rejected candidates for the military if they answered "yes" to the question: Are you gay?

Clinton's goal was to permit gays and lesbians to serve in the Armed Forces and when he issued the executive order he was fulfilling a campaign promise. But the decision was by no means popular and despite Clinton's best intentions, by the end of 1993 the president's order was made all but meaningless by Congressional adoption of a policy that came to be known as Don't Ask, Don't Tell.

Don't Ask Don't Tell was a policy drafted by Senator Sam Nunn, a Democrat from Georgia and the head of the Senate Armed Services Committee. The policy basically codified into law a ban on the service of openly gay men and women in the military. Instead, the military began to employ Don't Ask, Don't Tell. The military wouldn't ask about your sexual orientation and, if you didn't tell, then everything was fine. On the other hand, if a gay service member was outed, then they were immediately cast from the military's ranks, receiving a dishonorable discharge for their troubles.

The implicit irony of "Don't As, Don't Tell" should be lost on no one: in exchange for a pledge to protect our nation's freedom, gays and lesbians are required to give up part of theirs. The policy boldly requires them to cover up their sexuality and to lie about their lives and their families. And that isn't good for any of us.

Since the policy was adopted, nearly 12,000 service members have been discharged for being gay. Countless others have been harassed and terrified because of their sexual orientation.

It's inexcusable.

American public opinion is increasingly in favor of allowing openly gay service members to proudly serve. Last year, a CNN poll found that 79% of Americans feel that gays should be allowed to serve in the military. In an era of over-extended forces and stop-gap policies, it's foolish to prevent gays and lesbians from joining the military. If they want to serve, we should let them.

As a candidate on the stump, Barack Obama has opposed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." But it will require more than an executive order to end this foolish policy. The president will have to ask Congress to support an explicit overturn of the ban. For the sake of equality and liberty, he should lead the way.

All Politics, All the Time: Food Security

Many of us are familiar with the locavore food movement. It encourages people to buy locally-produced food; food produced via sustainable, land-friendly techniques. Locavores make the argument that local food is both fresher and has less of a carbon footprint. It's food that's good for us and good for the environment.

And then, of course, there is the matter of the safety of our food supply. From concerns about e-coli in U.S. mass-produced food (from beef to spinach, it's a problem that's not going away) to melamine in Chinese-produced food, it's time to acknowledge that modern agribusiness is not serving the world very well.

It's time for new ideas.

Consumption of locally-produced food will do a lot more than improve the quality of the food we eat. Locally produced food grown using sustainable techniques by our regional neighbors has the effect of ensuring that our land is being maintained by responsible land-stewards. Back in the day, we called these folks farmers. But farmers in the United States are an increasingly extinct population, as major corporations have taken over the business of growing our food. Government subsidies for corn and soybean growing have ensured a cheap, though nutritionally-weak, food supply. But it's also a low-quality food-supply, produced by an industrial-model that favors the use of pesticides, fossil-fueled machinery, massive processing and then long-distance transportation. The result is relatively cheap food. It is also nutritionally questionable food. It's time for a new food-production policy; one that helps the nation and our national health.

We already spend billions of dollars to subsidize the food industry, so let's use our dollars to solve some of the big problems on our planet: environmental improvement via sustainable farming methods, providing good local jobs, and making healthier food produced using less fossil-fuels. Better care for our land will result in a cleaner environment. We can ensure ourselves a safer food supply with an emphasis on local growth and consumption; utilizing organic and sunlight-based land care. Food produced in an environmentally friendly way will require more labor, but that's okay, as we have people in this nation who need work. If the United States produces and consumes food grown here at home, other nations will also do the same, thus guaranteeing them a safe, locally produced food supply sustained by local workers.

It won't be easy to change our habits. Americans love cheap, highly processed food. I'm not immune to the pleasures of drinking a high-fructose can of Coke while I eat my salsa and tortilla chips. We can still enjoy those pleasures, of course, though we will likely drink less soda when its costs are no longer artificially lower than a glass of juice or milk. Healthier food grown on healthier land will give us healthier bodies. It will sustain us in so many ways. It will be better for the nation and it will be better for the world.

All Politics, All the Time: A Green Economy

Two of the most significant political issues in the last few years have seemingly nothing in common: the changing climate for industrial-production jobs and concerns about the world's environment and the need for alternative energy.

The situation in a nutshell: in the last 40 years, as the American economy has shifted from industrial production to a service-based economy, a lot of good-paying factory jobs have disappeared. Much of our former industrial production has shifted to the global south economies, a factor that is well-worth exploring, though that is not my focus today. For now, let's just stipulate that factory workers all over the United States, but especially in the Rust Belt, are finding themselves unemployed with very few decent-paying job options on the horizon. For lack of opportunity, a lot of small towns and cities in middle America are struggling to keep their populations.

At the same time, the rising price of oil means that it costs us a lot more to drive our cars and heat our homes. We have suddenly become aware of the myriad ways that energy costs influence our lives. Add to that our increasing fears of the very real problem of global warming, and you can see that we need to make some changes. Soon.

I propose that we solve problem one (the loss of industrial jobs) with programs to address problem two (climate change and the need for sustainable energy and responsible environmental habits). To whit: the government should structure programs and incentives for industry to develop these technologies. From production of alternate fuel transportation (cars; public transport and more and NOT simply bio-fuels) to wind, solar, and other alternative energy technologies and water-renewal technologies, American innovation should be unleashed to develop the new technologies that will save the world's environment. And then we should produce the products here, providing good jobs for American workers.

In the same way that the Silicon Valley tech boom of the 1990s fueled the economic surge that got us out of our 1980s-era debt, and helped to grow our economy, we can use a Green Industry movement to make our world better, get our labor force back to work, and fuel the economic growth we will need to get ourselves and the world out of the current recession. The new president and Congress should set the stage for the growth of a new Green Economy. It's the kind of forward-thinking innovation that will enable us to do good by doing right.

All Politics, All the Time

Unless you've been living in an underground bunker for the past 18 months, you've heard about the upcoming election. Starting today and running through November 4th, I'll be writing about politics every day. I'll take a time-out for Halloween, the most sacred day on JT's kid-dom calendar, in order to post an unreasonable number of photos of my much-adored little boy in his costume. But then I'll return to my all-politics diet.

In my previous life I was a full-time political scientist. These days, I'm just a part-timer, since I also teach history. But it would be fair to say that I spend three to four hours every day reading and writing about politics. It's an obsession.

I like to think that it's a healthy obsession...and in the next week you can be the judge of that.

I check out the pollster.com website a few times every day, and it has the electoral map that I trust the most these days. Let's just say that things there look quite promising right now. But there are other electoral maps well-worth my political junkie time. Try this one or these folks for more information than you could possibly use. And if you'd like up-to-date daily polls about Senate and House races, Ron over at politics 1 has got your daily fix. The upshot of all of these websites: Blue Nation.

I know that winning is the focus right now, and I'm just as thrilled as the rest of the progressive world to see a Democrat back in the White House. I'm happy that the Congressional balance will also favor the Democrats. But winning is only half the battle. In the aftermath of November 4th, Barack Obama and the Democratic party must demonstrate that they can use their victory to govern well. So for the next few days, I will indulge my wonkish self with some ideas about how to make that happen.

A New Low

I make it a point to stay away from what I think of as political name-calling. So I tend to avoid reflections on people's character (and more often, lately, the lack thereof), I more readily ignore the foolish statements of elected leaders (I'm talking to you, John Murtha and Michele Bachman). Generally, I just don't think that these sorts of political moments are worthy of my time or attention. They're petty and I try to avoid them.

But I am making exception to my policy in light of a remarkable bit of information. In case you don't have time to read the link, here's the thumbnail summary: in the past 6 weeks, Sarah Palin has spent $150,000 of Republican National Committee money on new clothes, hair, and makeup for her campaign appearances.

I'm happy as can be to learn that the RNC, which is running dangerously low on cash in the last weeks of the election, had greenbacks to spare for Sarah's shopping spree.

Honestly, if I had known that new wardrobe was on the table, I'd have given a thought to being McCain's running mate myself. In fact, I could have outfitted myself and my son for less that $150,000....maybe $100,000? I could probably hit the sales and come in at $75,000 (but not a penny lower than that....I do have standards).

I assume that her new clothes from Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus have put Sarah Palin in closer touch with the regular, hard-working, loyal Americans of whom she is so fond. Though the consumer confidence numbers suggest we're all a little worried about our economic status, I'm sure that Main Street America is reassured that Sarah Palin is well-clad as she looks after our interests.

When Republicans ask why they lost this election, they might look to their own inexcusable hubris for the explanation.

Graveyard

There are a lot of homes with Halloween decorations around here and JT and I often admire the efforts of our neighbors. On the way home yesterday, it looked like a house with a big yard just down the street from school had placed a bunch of graveyard headstones in the front yard. JT and I were interested.

But when we drew closer, we realized that what had looked like headstones from a distance were actually a bunch of McCain/Palin signs.

Oops.

Though, on second thought, maybe the signs are just a symbol of coming reality for the GOP on November 4? I certainly hope so.

Live Blogging Round IV: The Final Showdown

Tonight is the final presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama. There's talk that McCain will "pull off the gloves," though I have no earthly idea what that means. I'm thinking that a slugfest between a 46 year old and a 72 year old (veteran though he is) doesn't offer promising odds to the 72 year old......but perhaps it's just a figurative removal of the gloves, whereby John McCain delivers a character attack against Barack Obama and thereby persuades the remaining undecided voters in America that McCain truly would sell his soul to occupy the White House.

No drinking game tonight, though I'm contemplating dipping into the family Halloween candy stash every time McCain offers up one of his favorite lame platitudes: calling us "my friends"; indictments of the greedy Wall Street crowd; or promises to balance the budget (this last being the boldest lie of the campaign so far...which is saying something).

But it's 9:01 and we're off and running, live from Hofstra University just north of here...........show Mama the Obama victory.

9:04
Ahhh, yes, I am one of those "innocent victims of greed" Senator McCain. And may I thank you for the dark chocolate that I've just popped in my (greedy?) mouth.

Does McCain know that Paulson has already blown $250 billion of the $700 billion bailout to re-capitalize banks? Because if we then spend $300 billion to bail out mortgages (and, that by the way, is a deeply confusing prospect....but I defer), then we don't have much left. I'm just saying.

9:08
Is this Joe of which McCain speaks Joe Sixpack, Sarah's friend?

No, it's Joe the Plumber. And he gets a tax cut if he makes less that $250,000 a year. And if Joe the Plumber is making more than $250,ooo a year, well, then, damn I should have skipped college and become a plumber.

9:10
McCain is not going to let go of the "Obama will tax the hell out of you" mantra.

9:18
McCain is always talking about things he knows how to do: find (and kill!) bin Laden at the last debate; tonight he knows how to slash spending, save zillions from defense spending. But he never explains just how he will do this. I'm reminded of Nixon's secret plan to end the war in Vietnam. And we know how well that went.

McCain is a little disjointed ---- passionate ---- but all over the place in his answers.

9:20
And McCain just said "sure, I can balance the budget in 4 years." WTF?! Call him on this Obama.

9:25
Bob the moderator just asked the boys if they could be nice to one another and McCain explains that he wanted to be nice and have a bunch of town halls but that Obama said no and well, since then, he's just had no choice but to deliver the nastygrams.

McCain looks as if his feelings are truly hurt. Whatev.

9:27
Obama should answer the questions about public funding of campaigns (he declined because his campaign is raising money by the fistful; McCain is stuck with public funding because he committed to the system early on, when his campaign was a long shot). He's about to hit the homerun: go ahead and attack me for the next three weeks, but what the public wants to hear about is the economic challenges ahead of us. Bingo.

Obama is spending more money on the campaign than McCain. Because he has the money to spend.

9:33
I think that McCain is wishful thinking to assert that 10,000 - 15,000 people attend his rallies. Obama is awfully successful at staying on message: the American people want to hear about the issue.

McCain just said that ACORN is destroying the fabric of American democracy. Dude, you need to dial back the rhetoric because you're in danger of making a complete ass of yourself. And you fell for the Ayars bait, John, John, John....Obama is about to eat your lunch.

9:41
Schiefer just asked Obama and McCain to defend their choice of a running mate. Oh my.

Obama: completely about Biden, no attack on Palin. Nicely done.

McCain: also did a pretty god job as well, though Sarah Palin isn't a role model to any woman I know.

9:53
I am of the view that free trade is a good idea, so it may very well be that I tip toward McCain on this (though we're not going to create millions of jobs selling crap to Columbians....it's not exactly on the list of the world's wealthiest nations). But most Democrats are not with me here and even though I'm disposed to prefer McCain's answer on this question, I thought he just seemed cranky. And suggesting that Obama should wander down to Columbia and check things out is just nutso.

Sweet Jesus: preconditions back again. Enough already. McCain is just all over the damned place and then, when he needs to conclude his comments he accuses Obama of preparing to raise our taxes.

10:00
If Joe the Plumber is making more than $250,000 a year in income, then he and his small business can damn well provide health insurance for his employees.

I'm guessing that Joe's phone is ringing off the hook now.

10:04
McCain is totally rambling. Though did I hear him say that he will be taxing all of us on our healthcare benefits? Doesn't he know that he's opposed to taxes?

10:15
Abortion. Yawn. More Americans support a right to choose and Obama knows it and isn't afraid to own being pro-choice. McCain has to kiss social conservative heinie on this. He did.....and when he did it kissed goodbye to the last undecided moderate women voters in America.

10:25
Plain's baby isn't autistic; he's got Down's Syndrome. Totally different situation....I trust McCain knows that he mis-spoke.

Michelle Rhee, the Superintendent of D.C schools supports charters, but as I understand it, she doesn't support a widespread system of vouchers.

10:28
McCain just couldn't resist getting in a last word that showed him to be a jackass. He has looked incredibly awkward tonight, aggressive but without reserve and though his closing remarks are a little more organized than his other comments, I haven't been particularly impressed.

10:31
Obama had a nice clean closer. He is one cool customer: impressively articulate and thoughtful. Very calm under pressure. Well done. I have to confess some relief that the debates are over. I am starting to get really hopeful that we've got smooth sailing to an Obama victory and I'm looking forward to being proud of my nation and its president again.

Political Realities

Yesterday, JT had a little book about the election that he had to fill out for school. He needed to identify the issues that matter to him and name the major presidential contenders; identify the two major political parties, and explain the three branches of government and how they check and balance one another in our system of federalism.

Okay, I'm lying about that last item. But the rest of this story is true.

I'll bet he was the only child in his class who knew the candidates, their political parties, and the issues. From the disgusted way he said the name "Palin" as he filled out the booklet, it would seem he won't be casting a ballot on her behalf any time soon.

As it turns out, that seems to be the view of much of the nation as well.

Let's hope it lasts.

I'll be live-blogging the final debate later tonight. Should be fun. If your name isn't John McCain.

Live Blogging, Round III

Tonight's presidential debate is a town hall format and it comes to us from Nashville, Tennessee. I lived in the Music City for five years back when I was young and idealistic and it remains my favorite city in America. The debate is at Belmont University, a Baptist college well-respected for its connections to the country music business.

And we all know of my fondness for country music.

Allegedly, the debate questions will come from regular Joe and Josephine Citizen, people who claim to be undecided voters. I have a hard time believing that there are any undecided voters left. While the rest of the nation has drunk the Obama Koolaid in the last week (check out this electoral map or this one), I assume that these undecideds have been holed up in a cave.....perhaps with bin Laden? That would certainly add a twist to tonight's discussion.

For tonight's debate, I've decided to add a personal challenge. Every time McCain utters one of his "trademark" phrases, I'll have a healthy sip of wine.
I'm a notorious lightweight and it's totally on John McCain if 3rd period doesn't get to take their test tomorrow because Ms. Sassafras is hung over.

The phrase list:
- untried, untested, or variations therein when used in reference to my man Barack
- Miss Congeniality.....because I hear word that McCain wasn't voted that award in the U.S. Senate
- maverick (though McCain usually lets Sarah Palin drop the m-bomb)
- earmarks or any other reference to wasteful federal spending
- General David Petraeus (in the unlikely event that McCain invokes Civil War General George McClellan, I'll drink then as well, perhaps two gulps for Little Mac)

9:06
It took Obama a minute to get to his plan for helping out the middle class out. But it's a good plan.

9:07
McCain earns me my first drink by talking about the need to slow federal spending. Thanks John.

9:10
Who should be the next Sec Treas? McCain wanders the stage and the wanders with his answer. Obama nails it.....he's on a first-name basis with the Sage of Omaha. And might Warren Buffet deliver Omaha to Obama?

9:15
As soon as McCain said it you could see that Obama was going to deliver the Fannie and Freddie jab right back at him. But first he answers the audience question from Oliver. Nicely done on that front. I know that the mainstream media is under the impression that Obama seems aloof in small groups. Not tonight, it would seem.

Also, I think that I should get to to drink anytime ANYONE says Fannie or Freddie. And I make the rules around here.

9:23
Is anyone going to explain just what the hell they mean by energy independence and how they will get us there?

McCain just told us he will cut spending by working on energy independence, healthcare, and entitlement spending all at once. Really? Dude, you're nuts.

9:26
Obama is all over the folksy charm tonight. He even knows the price of gas....but does he know that when the economy head south, the price of gas usually goes down? Because that's the tiny silver lining of the current debacle.

Did I hear earmarks? Show mama the wine.

9:31
When it comes to the sacrifice for your country question, Obama just hit a full-on home run, pointing out that George W. Bush told us post-9/11 to go shopping, and that doesn't constitute sacrifice. And then he discusses creating service opportunities for Americans. Yes.

9:39
Obama just did a terrific job of making clear his tax plan. But seriously, with the current federal spend-o-rama, does anyone really think we can cut their taxes?

9:41
Tip O'Neil is rolling in his grave to hear that he and John McCain are bosom buddies. McCain totally dodging the question of entitlement reform.

New rule: I drink when McCain says "my friends." Feeling no pain.

9:44
McCain's jobs program? Nuclear power. Ummmmmm, no thanks.

9:48
Brokaw all worked up because the time limits aren't being followed. McCain and Obama could care less.

I think that McCain is doing very badly, by the way. He's got soundbites but no details. He's jumpy and enthusiastic, but I don't want this dude in charge of the kids playing in the backyard, let alone the nucs.

10:08
Foreign policy, blah, blah, blah. McCain is much more comfortable here, but Obama is on fine-footing. And also: pocketbook economic issues trumps foreign policy with the voters.

10:32
The 'what is your weak spot' question is such a cheesy job interview question that it makes me laugh. I understand that being president is a big damned job and demands thoughtfulness and some sort of humility, but it's a strange way to ask this question.

The sum-up: McCain gets much stronger on foreign policy. He makes a good pitch with that steady-hand on the tiller claim....but I don't think that McCain has demonstrated his steadiness in the past week's economic mess, so he has a harder sell to make. McCain's dislike of Obama showed tonight and I don't think that helps his campaign.

Obama is just amazingly articulate, thoughtful, and very well-informed. He did an impressive job tonight; if anything, he was stronger than in the first format. He is steady handed and he has demonstrated it over and over in this past week.

Vices Revealed: Live Blogging the VP Debate

Suit up folks....I'm live-blogging the Vice Presidential debate. Should be fun and maybe, if we are very, very lucky, funny.

9:02 The audience has promised no untoward outbursts. I have made no such promise.

9:05 Memo to Sarah: most of the folks at the kids' soccer fields on Saturday actually have no Stock Market investments.

Both of them dodged this question, which was about how well Congress did with the bail-out (hint: not well at all, since, um, we don't actually have a bailout). Biden explaining how Bush policies have failed . But Palin argues that McCain was instrumental to the bailout. Really? That hasn't been obvious to me.

9:10 Palin just demanded federal regulation of banking. And then suggested people live within their means. My goodness, next she'll renounce the Republican party.

Biden needs to look at the camera as Palin is doing.

9:14 Biden pretty well ate her lunch on who voted for tax increases in the Senate. But she's feisty and fighting back.

9:20 Taxes just won't go away, will they? Ifill needs to get us off this nonsense, or we'll be pointing fingers all night long. And so she heads off to questions about which of the campaign proposals will have to be scaled back in light of the bailout. Both Obama and McCain dodged this last week.

9:23 And Palin just goes off on how great she's been at busting on oil corporations in Alaska. WTF? She got a little wacky off-script here. But she's got all sorts of TV presence, Tina Fey-style. Though her continued invocation of the idea that McCain got people to the table for the bailout makes me laugh.

9:30 I believe our friend from out West just called for drilling ANWAR, an "untapped domestic source of energy." She's answering all questions by discussing energy. So Gwen goes to climate change.

So Palin explains the climate in a way that I find completely confusing.....she wants to "positively effect the impacts." What does that mean?

9:36 And out of the frying pan into the fire....Biden endorses same-sex equality for property, hospital visiting. Palin is opposed to same-sex marriage, but you can sleep with whomever you like. Apparently, she knows some gay folks!

9:40 Gracious me, it's okay to be gay.

But perhaps not in the military........Gwen drops the ball and now Palin is discussing foreign affairs and telling us how great the surge is. She's all over the place here, with no tether to keep her sensible.

9:46 Palin can almost say Ahmadinejad......though she just called him insane, which seems unlikely to make him feel friendly toward us.

9:52 Memo to Sarah: the successful agreements between Israel and its neighbors was the accomplishment of Carter and Clinton, Democratic presidents. Not your peeps in the GOP.

9:56 Biden just nailed McCain on the similarity of McCain and Bush policies overseas. Total homerun for Joe there.

10:16 Does Palin actually know what the constitution says about the Vice Presidency? Because it ain't much. Has she read the constitution?

10:21 I've rarely heard Biden invoke his time as a single parent with such emotion and honesty. As a single parent myself, living in a world that often fails to understand what that feels like, I have to say that I really appreciate what he said. If Palin was being honest and she and her husband really didn't have health insurance at one time, then the campaign should talk about it.

But it says a lot that I assume she's not telling the truth.

10:29
Palin's sum-up was far stronger than her answers to the questions in the 90 minutes. Though I'm not persuaded that just because she's a proud American she (and John McCain) should be elected. Biden made the case for fundamental change and his definition of progress resounds with me. He can go folksy pretty darn well.

In sum, I think that it's truly clear that Biden is a thoughtful guy whose political credentials run deep. Palin seems to start strong but very quickly it's clear that her policy knowledge is, shall we say, deeply shallow. She's goes to folksy when that happens. I don't buy it.

Congressional Elections, part II

The House is only half of the legislative game, of course, so I've also got profiles of some key Senate races. In the Senate, with 100 seats, the margin of party control is slimmer. Technically speaking, both parties control 49 seats. Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut currently caucuses with the Democrats, as does Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. That gives the Democrats the edge in terms of committee chairs, with a functional 51-49 split. There are 35 seats up for election in the Senate this fall (both seats in Mississippi are up....see below for details). Of those races, 9 look competitive. And here the odds are intriguing: 8 of those seats belong to incumbent Republicans on the hot seat; only 1 incumbent Democrat is similarly uncomfortable. So it's likely the Democrats will improve their hold on the Senate, though it's unlikely they will achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

1. Alaska: Who knew that Alaska would become the focus of national politics in this year's election? Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens has been serving Alaska in the Senate since 1968, when he was appointed to serve the remaining term of his deceased predecessor. Since then, Stevens has been elected to 6 full terms on his own. This year, he is also under suspicion of a federal indictment for influence peddling. His trial is slated to start in early October. All of this has made the race attractive to Democrats, who don't often win state-wide office in Alaska. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is hoping to change that. Polls show that Begich currently has the slight lead in the race, but Stevens hasn't given up yet. The race is worth watching.

2. Colorado: Incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard is retiring. Two well-known Coloradons are facing off to replace him. The Democrat is Mark Udall, a former member of the State House, a current member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the son of Mo Udall, who served in the Colorado House delegation for 30 years. Udall is running against Republican Bob Schaffer, a former member of the Colorado State Senate, a 3-term ex-member of Congress, a current member of the Colorado State Board of Education and an '04 candidate for the Senate. This is a big match-up featuring two well-known candidates; the current edge goes to Udall but you can expect this race to be competitive.

3. Louisiana: Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is the only incumbent Democratic Senator expected to face a tough contest this fall. For a while it seemed that Landrieu might lose to Republican John Kennedy, the state's current Treasurer and a former Democrat. But things have evened out lately and Landrieu has the slight edge at the moment. Can she hold on to it?

4. Minnesota: Republican Senator Norm Coleman is near the end of his first term in the Senate and he's struggled to remain popular in the state. Helping to pound the nails in his coffin is Democrat Al Franken, a native Minnesotan and former SNL actor, with a long-standing interest in politics. Franken has been campaigning for the seat for nearly two years. Gumming up the works is former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley, running as an Independent. Polls show this race to be tight, with both Coleman and Franken taking a turn as the leader. Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss-up...it isn't over yet.

5. Mississippi: Republican Trent Lott retired from the Senate last year and the Governor of the state appointed Republican Roger Wicker to serve until an election could be held. Wicker is seeking to hold the seat, facing off against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi Governor. Wicker and Musgrove are seeking to earn the seat for two more years. In the other Mississippi seat, incumbent Senator Thad Cochrane is expected to coast to victory. But can the GOP hold both seats this fall? That may be a tough challenge. Musgrove is a formidable opponent and though Wicker has a slim lead in the most recent polls, the Cook Political Report currently rates this race as a toss-up.

6. North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is seeking a second term as a Tarheel Senator and she currently holds the lead in the race. But she's facing a tough challenger in the form of Democrat Kay Hagan, who has served in the state Senate for 10 years. Hagan is well-respected and well-liked in the state. She's the underdog right now, but there are six weeks to go and Dole hasn't yet sealed the deal. This is a race to watch.

7. New Hampshire: This year, the Granite State is being touted as a swing state for the presidential race. That prospect, a function of the state's increasing friendliness to Democrats, has placed incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu in a tough spot. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was the first woman to be elected Governor in the Granite State; she served for two terms and was well-liked. Shaheen has been running against Sununu since last fall; she left a job at the Harvard Kennedy School to take him on. A recent ARG poll shows Shaheen leading Sununu 52% to 40%. Look for this race to take on a national profile as November approaches.

8. New Mexico: The retirement of incumbent Republican senator Pete Domenici has opened up an opportunity for another member of the Udall family, Democrat Tom Udall, son of conservationist Stewart Udall. Udall is facing off against Republican Tom Pearce. Both Udall and Pearce currently represent New Mexico in the U.S. House and both are well-liked. But Udall has a substantial lead in this race, 56% to 41% according to a recent Survey USA poll, and is planning to cruise to victory. New Mexico is a swing-state in the presidential election, so the race could very tighten up as we come down the stretch.

9. Virginia: Republican incumbent Senator John Warner is retiring from office, leaving this seat up for grabs. One reason that Virginia has made a lot of presidential swing state lists has been the success of Democrat Mark Warner (no relation) in the Old Dominion. Warner was a popular Governor; these days he's seeking the Senate running against Republican Jim Gilmore, also a former Governor. Democrat Warner has a significant lead in state-wide polls right now. Will Virginia be a pick-up for his party?

Update: Thanks to reader RB from Virginia for the correction.....Warner was a one-term Governor in the state. Apparently, the Old Dominion term limits the governor at one term. That's federalism for you.

Congressional Elections

As November 4 gets ever-closer, the nation is caught up in the presidential elections. Certainly that contest is important, but there are also some critical congressional elections coming our way. Today and Wednesday I'll feature profiles of some of the key House and Senate races.

First up is the House of Representatives. There are 435 seats in the House. Democrats currently control 235 seats; the GOP controls 199 seats. 1 seat is currently vacant, the result of the death of Representative Stephanie Tubbs-Jones in late August. All 435 of these seats are up for grabs this fall. Of the seats open because of retirement or folks seeking higher office, there are 7 open Democratic seats and 29 open Republican seats, so the odds tip in favor of the Democratic party continuing to hold the majority in the House. Below are profiles of some of the key races.

1. Alaska - AL: The Land of the Midnight Sun has only one seat in the House so election to it means running statewide. That's one of many reasons that Republican Don Young has been in the seat since winning a special election in 1973. This year, he's caught up in the Stevens scandal (see below) and he's vulnerable to Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, the State Senate Minority Leader. A recent Research 2000 poll shows Berkowitz leading the race with 53% of likely voter support to Young's 39%. Can Berkowitz hold his lead?

2. Alabama – 02: Alabama Republican Representative Terry Everett is retiring from the House this year. He hopes to turn over his seat to Republican Jay Love, a state representative and ex-restaurant owner. Popular Montgomery Mayor and attorney, Democrat Bobby Bright, is hoping for a big Democratic turnout in south Alabama. That won't deliver the state to Obama, but it may deliver Bright to the House of Representatives.

3. Alabama – 05: Democratic incumbent Bud Cramer is retiring from Congress. Republican businessman Wayne Parker, the 1994 and 1996 nominee for this race is hoping that 2008 will prove his lucky year. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator, local physician, and veteran is banking on holding the seat for the Democratic party.

4. Colorado – 04: Marilyn Musgrave has been a cultural warrior in Colorado politics; a proudly outspoken Republican social conservative. But in her most recent television ad, asking for a 4th term in the House, Musgrave doesn't mention that she's a Republican. More than anything else, that's a sign that Colorado-04 may be up for grabs this year. Democrat Betsy Markey, who served as Democratic Senator Ken Salazar's regional director in the district and has business connections in northern and eastern Colorado, is thinking that this district can be plucked on behalf of the Democrats. She may be right about that.

5. Florida – 21: GOP Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-American representative for this Miami-area district, has been in the U.S. House since 1993. A lawyer and state legislator before he won the seat, Diaz-Balart has always gathered the support of the local Cuban-American community. But the Cubanos may find themselves divided this year as another of their own, Democrat Raul Martinez, the mayor of Hialeah and publisher of the Spanish newspaper El Sol de Hialeah, gives Diaz-Balart a run for his money.

6. Florida – 25: The news isn't much better for another member of the Diaz-Balart family, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is in his third term representing this Miami-area district. After serving for 14 years in the Florida state legislature, Diaz-Balart was elected to the House in 2002. His challenger is Democrat Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic chair and former head of Exodus Project, a successful refugee resettlement program. Garcia is a formidable opponent. Can the younger Diaz-Balart brother do his part to secure the family's political dynasty?

7. Kansas – 02: Frosh Representative Nancy Boyden was first elected to the House in 2006, with a wave of new Democrats who arrived that year. She represents most of eastern Kansas, including Topeka, Leavenworth, and Manhattan. She is well-liked in the state but Democrats never get an easy run is eastern Kansas and Republican Lynn Jenkins, a two-term Kansas State Treasurer ad ex-state representative, is hoping to send Boyden home. Cook Political report currently rates this race a toss-up.

8. Louisiana – 06: This race features a good-old-fashioned Southern wrestling match of partisan politics. The incumbent Democrat, Don Cazayoux, served in the Louisiana state house for three terms before he won election to the House in a May '08 special election held after the retirement of incumbent Representative Richard Baker. Cazayox's win was a bit of surprise – LA-06 has been held by the Republican party for years. Enter GOP state senator and physician Bill Cassidy, campaigning on a platform of keeping the GOP in charge of LA-06. Will raising the Republican flag be a mistake this election year? Cazayoux sure hopes so as he fights to hold on to the seat.

9. New Hampshire – 01: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is a frosh member of the House seeking re-election. Shea-Porter is the first woman the Granite State has sent to federal office. And the man she beat in 2006? That would be GOP-nominee Jeb Bradley, who is seeking a re-match this year. The race has been a tense affair, as you might imagine. Will southeastern New Hampshire return Shea-Porter for a second term or will Bradley get his old job back?

10. New Mexico – 01: New Mexico found all three of its House members seeking to be their party's nominee for the open Senate seat. So this seat, which currently belongs to Republican Heather Wilson, is open. Two young, dynamic, and popular leaders are vying to get the seat. Republican Darren White is the current Bernalilo County Sheriff and a former Secretary of Public Safety. He's also a veteran. Democrat Martin Heinrich is a former director of an environmental non-profit, an appointee to the New Mexico Natural Resources Board, and a current member of the Albuquerque City Council. This race is expected to be close.

11. Ohio – 01: Republican Steve Chabot has represented Ohio-01 since 1994. The district, in southern Ohio, includes Cincinnati and has been reliably Republican for the last 15 years. But the GOP has some troubles in Ohio this year and Democrat Steve Driehaus, a Peace Corp veteran, the state house minority whip, and a community development consultant, is under the impression that Chabot is vulnerable. Ohio is also a presidential swing state this year. The race could be a barn-burner.

12. Ohio – 15: Republican Deb Pryce has run in tight races for most of her career in the House. This year she's retiring and the seat is up for grabs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran against Pryce in 2006, is in the race this year. Kilroy has name recognition in the district as a result of her previous run and her service as Franklin County Commissioner and on the Columbus School Board. Republican Steve Stivers, a state senator and Desert Storm War veteran, is hoping to hold the 15th for his party. Ohio-15 is a classical swing district. Which way will it swing this year?

13. Pennsylvania – 10: Frosh representative Chris Carney won this district in 2006, one of a number of Democrats who swept into the House that year. Carney is a Navy Reservist and was a professor at Penn State at Scranton before he went to D.C. His opponent this year is businessman Chris Hackett. Pennsylvania-10 is a classical swing district in a swing state. Will Carney hold on?

Debate Night: Live Blogging

The plan tonight is live blogging the debate. But first a history lesson: 45 years ago, the nation watched as Ole Miss hurled invective and insults at African-Americans seeking to enroll as students at the university. Tonight, an African-American presidential candidate is warmly welcomed at Ole Miss.

I wonder if James Meredith ever envisioned this?

Okay, it seems fair to point out that snide comments will likely outnumber sincerity in tonight's posting. But I am truly serious when I say it makes me very proud of my nation to see Barack Obama as a presidential candidate on the stage tonight.

9:12
On the night when Republicans are asking us to spend $700 billion to save the national economy, John McCain is calling for fiscal responsibility. Seriously, I don't ever want to hear another Republican talk to me about fiscal responsibility. GOP: Kiss my heinie.

9:19
Earmarks are a red herring. Anyone who took American Gov't 101 knows that they are less than 1% of the national budget; getting rid of them actually changes nothing.

9:25
In the current economic situation, ain't none of us gonna get a tax cut. Move it along boys.

9:28
Obama is spot-on when he talks about our need to build infrastructure, the electricity grid, broadband access nationwide. Yes.

9:29
McCain: I oppose ethanol. I couldn't agree more but you just lost Iowa for the GOP pal.

9:38
OMG, McCain just called Sarah Palin a maverick. Dimwit, yes. Maverick, no.

9:44
Why does McCain think that Obama has to go to Iraq to know what's going on? That's just bullshit.

9:55
Foreign policy now. I think that I speak for all of America when I say: Yawn.

9:58
McCain is spot on about his vote on the Marines in Beirut in '83, but where is he headed with all of this? I guarantee you that the viewing public has no idea what he's talking about. I do know and he's lost me.

10:08
Main reason McCain will not meet with Ahmadinejad of Iran? Can't pronounce his name.

10:09
Obama just totally trumped McCain on this whole "meeting without preconditions" question.

10:13
McCain did not rise to meeting with Spain bait. Bummer.

10:15
McCain about to lose his cool. Bring it on, baby.

10:26
Asked about risk of another terror attack, McCain just plays the 9/11 drumbeat. And then wanders all over the place. WTF?

10:32
About to close up shop. In summary, the debate was a serious discussion. Obama was far more articulate than McCain and totally collected under pressure. McCain less organized, frequently retreated to scripted lines rather than answer questions. But no major screw-ups for him.

10:35
Obama sum up on American standing in the world: full-on homerun there. Can't invoke being a POW like McCain, but he's got a vision and he explained it.

Crying Wolf

Lately, as Congress wrestles with its many questions about the proposed bailout of Wall Street, I keep coming back to that old fable about the boy who cried wolf.

Both Ben Bernacke, the head of the Federal Reserve, and Henry Paulson, the Secretary of the Treasury, are smart guys. Bernacke wrote his Ph.D. dissertation on the causes of the Great Depression and he's indisputably knowledgeable about what a worldwide depression would look like, not to mention how it can be prevented. Paulson is similarly capable and folks who've work with him over the years have characterized him as impressively calm and level-headed in the midst of big decisions. The current panic on Wall Street certainly qualifies as a crisis. I respect both of these guys and I think that they are right to ask Congress for a 700 billion dollar bail out. The United States must do its level best to keep our economy on level footing. We owe it to the world.

I think that the problem here isn't that Congress doubts Bernacke and Paulson as much as the fact that Congress has been burned twice by the administration for whom these men work. The Patriot Act and the Iraq War authorization were also presented as pieces of legislation that must be authorized NOW. Congress was actively discouraged from thinking or asking critical questions. In the midst of the legislative furor that surrounded those events, those who suggested that a little time to think might be a good idea were advised by the Bush folks that THE SKY WAS FALLING. NOW. Delay might be deadly, we were warned.

And so Congress acted in haste. They have repented in leisure. Twice burned by an unwise and dishonest administration, this Congress wants some time to think. I can't fault them their instinct. They are right to engage in debate and discussion; they should ask the hard questions. That is their job and we must demand it of them. I am confident that Congress will authorize a regulated bailout. It's the right thing to do. But, understandably, they want time to understand the problem and structure an appropriate solution.

In the aftermath, I hope that Congress and the nation sits down to a serious discussion of what happens to use when our president is no longer considered trustworthy. Simply put, it's not good for the republic. The Bush Administration cried wolf one too many times and now, when a real wolf is at the door, they have no credibility with the Congress, with the American public, and most likely with the rest of the world. The next president has his work cut out for him. I keep asking myself if eight years is enough time to undo the damage that the Bush Administration has done to our world.

For the sake of my son and the many other children whom I love, I hope that it is.

Freddie Who?

On Monday the 8th, at 8:30 am in the morning, my colleague S laid down a challenge: I would hear the names Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae at least ten times on that day. I took the challenge and began to keep track of just how often I heard (or read) those words. I applied a stringent standard: each story I heard or read counted as a single mention. In the context of those stories, I'm pretty sure that I heard the words Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae well over 40 times.

Here is my Freddie and Fannie journal for yesterday.

10:16 am, mention #1:
NYT e-mail alert that the federal takeover of Fannie and Frieddie has lifted the opening markets.

1:27 pm, mention #2:
Kevin Drum blog over at Mother Jones mentions the FMs.

4:45 pm, mention #3:
John McCain says the magic words on All Things Considered.

5:31 pm, mention#4:
Not to be outdone, Barack Obama weighs in on All Things Considered.

5:37 pm, mention #5:
Actual story on the bailout details and likely long-term meaning of the bailout; All Things Considered.

5:40 pm, mention #6:
Story on Fannie & Freddie and their boundless lobbying skills on All Things Considered. Turns out Fannie & Freddie were shameless lobbying whores.

5:59 pm, mention #7:
NPR bridge announcement: coming up a story on your favorite party guests, Fannie & Freddie.

6:00 pm, mention #8:
NPR bridge announcement: coming up on Marketplace at 6:30, a story....well, go ahead and guess.

6:01 pm, mention #9:
Headlines on NPR: White House weighs in on the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bailout.

6:30 pm, mention #10:
Marketplace headlines: Guess who's coming to dinner?

6:32 pm, mentions #11, 12, & 13:
Three different stories on Marketplace.

6:45 pm mention #14:
Stock Market report on Marketplace......Fannie & Freddie stock prices are included.

7:29 pm, mention #15:
Sarah Palin gaffe report on Kevin Drum's blog at Mother Jones. Palin says, " The fact is, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they've gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers," demonstrating a colossal misunderstanding of just what's going on because it was just yesterday that Fannie and Freddie belonged to the taxpayers. Also, I notice she never complains that oil companies are too big. Or insurance companies are too big. Size matters to the Republicans in a weird, weird way.

Obviously, the 6pm hour was the low (or high?) point of Freddie and Fannie in my day. Happily, I am fully versed on this particular economic governance disaster.

And I would just like to say this: when some hard-working family doesn't have enough money left over for groceries; when they can't fathom how they'll fill their gas tank and pay the winter heating bill; when they can't afford healthcare for their children, how is it that they are left to their own devices and made to feel shame about their circumstance while Fannie and Freddie stumble and get a zillion dollar bailout?

I don't oppose the bailout; I know that it must be done. But if we can make Freddie and Fannie solvent, then I think we owe the same consideration to hardworking families struggling to get by.

That view (and my promiscuously slavish devotion to the liberal media as noted above), is just one more reason that I'll be voting for Barack Obama in November.