When Moore is Less

Much to my horror, I believe that Roy Moore is going to win today’s election for an Alabama Senate seat.  It’s shameful and horrifying, disgraceful to the women whom he assaulted, and evidence that white supremacy,  mysogyny are routinely embraced in some corners of our nation.

I’ll wait until after the Moore victory to explain what went down.  Today, I’m going to focus my writing on how the Senate GOP will handle the Moore win.  I have a prediction.

I think that before he’s sworn in, Mitch McConnell will refer Moore to the Senate ethics committee who will ultimately rule that he’s not fit to serve.  The Senate will decline to swear Moore into the seat and instead ask the governor of Alabama, a Republican, to appoint a Senator to serve until an election can be held.

In this way, the GOP hopes to dodge the stain of Roy Moore while remaining damned sure that they hold the seat for their party when major votes on policy need to happen.  Keeping the seat red is essential to advancing the Republican agenda, especially the Tax Bill currently in conference committee.  That’s why Trump supported Moore; that’s why no other Republican leader with actual power had the courage to insist that Moore step down.  McConnell, Graham, and McCain declined to support Moore but that is not the same thing as working full-steam against him.  These leaders took a cowardly pass because they want to have power far more than they want anything else.

We’re going to mark this election as another moment when the Republican party demonstrated that their quest for power is far more important to them than their quest to lead; that the interests of the GOP comes before the nation interest.  This is a dangerous  thing for a political party and bad for the nation.  This is Donald Trump’s America.

Update, 12/12/17, 11:30 pm: Doug Jones won! Thanks to strong African-American voter turnout, Moore was defeated. As the returns were confirmed last night, I felt a powerful wave of emotion flow over me. This nation needed some good political news; I needed some good political news.  Thank you, Alabama!

A Reality Check for Paul Ryan

As last week’s primary results unfolded, I’ll admit that I was surprised on Tuesday evening when Ted Cruz dropped out of the race.  It felt abrupt, though I don’t know exactly why I think that.  He’d placed everything on the line in Indiana and had lost rather spectacularly.  But I assumed that Cruz would stay in it for a few more rounds of abuse.

Which is not to say that I had enthusiasm for Cruz as a candidate.  I’d never cast a ballot for him as dog catcher, let alone president, but his presence allowed me to continue the pipe dream that Donald Trump doesn’t truly have a shot at running for the White House as a major party candidate.  Then Cruz left the race; the next day, John Kasich followed and suddenly Donald F. Trump looks like the Republican nominee for president.

I can’t even.

By Thursday, some Republicans were making their peace with the fact that their primary voters have gone nuts.  While most mainstream Republicans held the line and refused to actively support Trump, some on the fringes have expressed support.  Then Speaker of the House Paul Ryan emerged to say that he’s not yet ready to endorse Trump.  Ryan’s position is that his party must stand for something and offer an affirmative policy agenda.  That’s a respectable idea.  Though I suspect that policy agenda isn’t something I will come to support, it’s at least something the nation's voters can think about and explore.  

It’s a far cry from Trump’s pledge to build a wall, torture our enemies, bring back jobs lost because of free market trade, ban Muslims, or his Friday morning suggestion that the United States simply re-structure our debts and pay cents on the dollar, as if making America great is as simple as a Chapter 13 filing.  The problem with Ryan’s policy notions is that right now such thoughts are a pipe dream; the GOP has no affirmative agenda because they have no responsible center.  Ryan’s party is fractured and angry.  Trump may have won many of the primary votes within the GOP but let’s not forget that more primary voters cast ballots for his opponents then cast ballots for him.  He’ll take a few self-congratulatory victory laps and then I expect reality to come crashing down on T-rump and the rest of his party.

Reality is that the Republican party has for years collected the support of voters for whom they were prepared to do next-to-nothing.  From the Reagan Democrats who emerged in the 1980s to the Christian conservatives who believe they represent a silent majority, the GOP has cultivated these votes with nary an effort to make a return on the voters’ investment.  Now those voters are angry and have turned to a charlatan candidate in the form of a smug, privileged millionaire who says whatever he pleases.  Your party is reaping what you’ve sown, Mr. Ryan, and it’s not just you but the nation who will have to pay for those decisions.

Thanks a lot.

Michigan and Mississippi

Primary voting today occurs in two states with very significant demographic and voting differences.  Both Democrats and Republicans are voting in Michigan; only Democrats are casting primary ballots in Mississippi.  We’ll start with Mississippi, which is the easier of the two to predict.  

Mississippi’s  Democratic voters have a significantly large and influential African American block and Clinton’s well-established strength with these voters will play out as expected.  Score Mississippi for Hillary Clinton.

And now we’ve landed in with the Michiganders.  Michigan is a state with a large blue collar labor force, many of whom are the type of voters who are known as Reagan Democrats; blue collar labor workers who supported Reagan in 1980 and have continued to lean Republican despite the fact that the party is not known for its pro-labor policies.  That demographic group is going to matter on both sides of the primary.   For Democrats, the labor constituency will divide between Sanders and Clinton, with a slim majority of them in Sanders’ corner.  However, I think that Clinton will prevail in the state  because she will pick up African American voters by a wide majority.  Though Sanders has begun to close the gap, Clinton will take Michigan by a narrow margin.

The Republican contest in the Great Lakes state is a more complicated situation.  Trump’s populism is likely to gain traction among many of the Republican voters, especially the Reagan Democrat core.  Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio will split what remains and though their totals may exceed the Donald, I think that Trump will take home a victory tonight, with final numbers in the mid 30s.

Kasich will come in second, with a final voter tally in the mid-20s and Cruz just behind him.  The big news of the night will be that Rubio rolls in fourth, with support below 20%.  Rubio's campaign will still hold on for the Florida contest on March 15 but with each day that passes, that contest is more and more a do-or-die event for little Marco.

Wednesday morning update:  I failed to include Idaho and Hawaii in my predictions; moreover, I missed the fact that Mississippi Republicans were also voting yesterday.  I'm not sure why I made these errors, but perhaps it has to do with the fact that my predictions for Tuesday were off?

By a narrow margin, Sanders took Michigan, not Clinton.  That's an interesting development and makes next Tuesday's contests even more important for the Democrats.  Trump won Michigan and Mississippi.  Cruz came in second, just 1 point over Kasich.  Rubio was fourth.  In Idaho, Cruz pulled out a victory.  Two things about this are notable: First, the Trump alternative seems to be Cruz, which must horrify establishment Republicans.  Second, Rubio is looking more and more like a candidate on life support.

There is Some Voting Today

Today’s contests are rather all over the map, both caucuses and primaries.  All told, there is voting today and Sunday in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska.  Let’s start with the Republican caucus contests.  

Republicans are caucusing today in Kansas, Kentucky, and Maine.  We are long past the days when Kansas sent forth moderate, thoughtful, leadership-oriented Republicans (think Alf Landon, Nancy Kassebaum, Bob Dole).  Nope, these days, Kansas Republican voters bring the crazy.  They’ve got lots of choices in the crazy category in this year’s GOP contest but they’ll go for Ted Cruz, by a smidge.

Kentucky Republicans will also be caucusing today, a choice they made when favorite son Rand Paul was still in the presidential race (remember him?).  Kentucky law wouldn’t permit Paul to be a primary candidate for both the Senate and the presidency.  Rand hates government so much he wanted to be a candidate for both jobs and he persuaded the Bluegrass State to caucus, where he could be a presidential candidate without breaking the laws.  Now he’s out of the presidential race and the caucus victory will go to Trump, who is faring well in the South. 

Maine Republicans are also holding a caucus and their governor has endorsed Trump.  That might carry some weight with Maine voters, so put Maine in his column as well.  The only Republican primary today is in Louisiana.  Texan Cruz held on in Texas and its neighbor state, Oklahoma.  But he hasn’t been much of a presence in Louisiana so the state’s Republican voters will likely choose the party’s national leader: score this one for Trump.

It’s notable that Marco Rubio is about to have another bad day.  I’m not going to declare his campaign on life support but it’s damn close.

Democrats also have a combination of caucuses and primaries today.  Kansas and Nebraska will both hold a caucus.  Both of these states are Republican strongholds and the Democrats there are a small but hearty lot, typically with populist, liberal tendencies.  Score both of these states for Sanders.

Democrats in Maine will caucus tomorrow.  Clinton surprised me when she held on to Massachusetts on Super Tuesday and I think that Maine Democrats will lean the same way.  The only Democratic primary today is in Louisiana.  Clinton has been on fire among Southern Democrats and she’ll win the Bayou State.

The Democratic contest is alive and well; the candidates are both organized and thoughtful, with detailed plans for governing and the kind of rhetoric we expect serious candidates to speak.  The Republicans are a train wreck and like most bloody smash-ups, it’s awfully hard to avert my eyes.  But make no mistake, we’re seeing the break-up of the Republican party and things are going to get a lot more unpleasant before this is over.