February 5

Today the California state legislature approved a plan to hold their 2008 presidential primary on February 8, 2008. The Governor is expected to sign the bill. This will move the Golden State near the front of the pack in presidential primaries, right after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Their reasoning is that the state provides nearly 40% of the money that candidates will raise and they'd like their voters to have an influence on the outcome. Previous California primaries have been held in June and by then the parties have picked their nominees. The Cali move will likely motivate other big money states to go early ---- word is that New Jersey is giving it serious thought ---- and it will result in front-loading in the extreme (I will discuss that in a later post), but that seems pretty inevitable when speaking of primaries these days.

I think that it's also important to point out that the current early states are hardly reflective of the nation, whereas racially and economically diverse California does look like the nation. Iowa and New Hampshire have long-cherished their first status but they are hardly more virtuous than the rest of us and the issues that matter to them often don't matter to the rest of the nation. Case in point on that charge is the whole debate about ethanol, which matters in the Hawkeye state and therefore must matter to candidates. But the issue is the ultimate red herring and I'd rather hear candidates talk about actual issues (healthcare, the war in Iraq, entitlement spending, the poverty gap....just to name a few) than ethanol. Memo to Iowa: the rest of the nation feels that way.

California is tired of paying for the prom and not getting invited to attend. In 2008 they will pay for the prom and be an honored guest. I daresay that they will do an excellent job of vetting and discarding the 2008 presidential pack. And by February 5, 2008 we may know exactly who the major party candidates will be.

Of course, that's another problem.

Some Things That Must Be Said

It's early in the presidential sweepstakes, but in the next few months I plan to write up some assessments of the main contenders for their party's nomination. Here is my first, an evaluation of candidate Rudy Giuliani.

As I write, Rudy Giuliani is currently being hailed as the presidential savior of the Republican Party. The national press corps, perhaps lured by his national polling numbers, seem charmed by Rudy. In a number of recent polls (USA Today/Gallup, Fox News, CBS News) Giuliani is the clear front-runner among Republicans; sometimes he's nearly 20 points ahead of Senator John McCain, the other GOP front-runner. The press seems content to conclude that these polls show that Giuliani has a real shot at the White House. But I say let's not anoint Rudy just yet.

Giuliani is touted as a bridge-building candidate, who will have crossover appeal to independents and some Democrats. But I think that the political reality is that Giuliani is a non-starter. His national polling numbers are really meaningless at this time because they don't reflect any real campaign face-offs. Moreover, they distort some of his very real inadequacies as a candidate. I don't think that he can win the GOP nomination, much less the presidency. And I think that for some very good reasons. So as not to engage in an anti-Rudy rant, I will confine myself to the most important points:

1. He is a pro-choice, pro gay-rights, generally socially moderate Republican. The last time I looked, the GOP was neither pro-choice nor pro-gay and these folks have little patience for socially moderate positions. Even if Rudy has a last minute social conservative epiphany, his credibility on his change of political heart will be low.

2. He is inexperienced. Being the Mayor of NYC may prepare you to be the Governor of New York, but it is not sufficient preparation to be the president of the United States. Hell, being the governor of Texas hasn't proven sufficient, and GWB was actually an executive.

3. And speaking of his time as hizzoner, Giuliani may have lowered crime, but he did it via racial profiling and other Machiavellian methods that won't wash with the moderate independent voters that a Giuliani candidacy is supposed to charm.

4. Giuliani as prosecutor and later as mayor earned himself a reputation for being callous and cold-hearted, toward both his opponents and his political allies. He was seen as mean-spirited even when being nice would cost him nothing. This is a man whose wife learned that he was seeking to divorce her when he made the announcement at a press conference. That's cold and it isn't going to give the American public the warm fuzzy feelings they like to get from their presidential candidates.

5. The day before he was the hero of 9/11, Giuliani was the joke of late-night television. His personal life was in a shambles and his political future was not promising. He did a great job on 9/11 and in the aftermath. But it won't be enough to erase the record he had acquired in the pre-9/11 political world.

6. Does he really have the fire in his belly? He dodged a run against Hilary Clinton in the NY Senate race a few years back, leaving his party without a candidate in a race they might could have own. He's made himself a millionaire in the post 9/11 world, and it seems that he likes to live well. Clearly he likes power, but does he like responsibility?

Let's also remember that he hasn't yet made his official declaration. So for now, I think that I've dispelled the Rudy-mania.