February 5

Today the California state legislature approved a plan to hold their 2008 presidential primary on February 8, 2008. The Governor is expected to sign the bill. This will move the Golden State near the front of the pack in presidential primaries, right after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Their reasoning is that the state provides nearly 40% of the money that candidates will raise and they'd like their voters to have an influence on the outcome. Previous California primaries have been held in June and by then the parties have picked their nominees. The Cali move will likely motivate other big money states to go early ---- word is that New Jersey is giving it serious thought ---- and it will result in front-loading in the extreme (I will discuss that in a later post), but that seems pretty inevitable when speaking of primaries these days.

I think that it's also important to point out that the current early states are hardly reflective of the nation, whereas racially and economically diverse California does look like the nation. Iowa and New Hampshire have long-cherished their first status but they are hardly more virtuous than the rest of us and the issues that matter to them often don't matter to the rest of the nation. Case in point on that charge is the whole debate about ethanol, which matters in the Hawkeye state and therefore must matter to candidates. But the issue is the ultimate red herring and I'd rather hear candidates talk about actual issues (healthcare, the war in Iraq, entitlement spending, the poverty gap....just to name a few) than ethanol. Memo to Iowa: the rest of the nation feels that way.

California is tired of paying for the prom and not getting invited to attend. In 2008 they will pay for the prom and be an honored guest. I daresay that they will do an excellent job of vetting and discarding the 2008 presidential pack. And by February 5, 2008 we may know exactly who the major party candidates will be.

Of course, that's another problem.