Supremely Well Played

When Brett Kavanaugh was nominated to the Supreme Court, I figured that Democrats would fight the good fight and lose anyway.  We’d have yet another Supreme Court justice well to the right of the center (and actual American public opinion), especially on the issue of the right to privacy and abortion.

Now that federal court nominations are filibuster-proof, a Democratic party short of 51 seats in the Senate is doomed to lose.  I had little hope that Republican pro-choice senators like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins would save us.  Of course they would ask Kavanaugh how he felt about Roe v. Wade and of course he would say it is “settled law.”  Murkowski and Collins would act as if this was re-assuring while the rest of us would know that the answer was anything but since the Supreme Court’s primary power is to alter whatever “settled” law they wish to change.  Roe would quickly be unravelled and then we’d be fighting like hell to hold on to marriage equality.  Reasonable gun control didn’t have a prayer.

I wouldn’t say that I was sanguine about this prospect.  It would be yet another in the chain of horrifying developments that is the Trump Administration.  I would not give up hope and I’d continue to fight like mad to ensure that in subsequent elections there would be enough motivated voters to back our nation off the political ledge that is Donald Trump and his merry band of right-wing bigotry.  

In an office discussion, my boss and I made one of our one dollar bets.  He took confirmation for a dollar and I was sporting, taking the side of a “no” vote for Kavanaugh.  I figured the money was gone but I like to indulge in bitter, ironic laughter.  Clearly, I hadn’t accounted for Senator Chuck Schumer’s willingness to play political hard ball.  At every step of the confirmation process, the Democratic minority leader and his fellow senators have played the long-game on the Kavanaugh nomination.  Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris were heroic in their willingness to insist upon full release of Kavanaugh’s records as well as persistence on the very hard questions.  They played it so well that although I still expected confirmation I felt the Democrats had set us up for a longer term win, suggesting enough doubts about Kavanaugh that we could use the issue to encourage better Democratic turnout in 2018 and well beyond.

I also came to believe that the combination of Republican urgency to confirm and complete unwillingness to release documents related to Kavanaugh was an odd and troubling decision.  Of course, I find many GOP positions to be odd and troubling so this was no surprise.  Then we got the bombshell accusation about Kavanaugh’s behavior as a teenager and an accuser willing to step forward.

The GOP has its hands tied now: refusal to listen to Christine Blasey Ford will haunt them now and later; they know it and have devised a strategy whereby she is expected to testify before the Senate Judiciary committee on Monday next.  Blasey Ford and Senate Democrats want an FBI investigation, which adds time to the clock, a position that is both politically savvy on their part and likely the best approach no matter your politics.  Republicans, with an eye on the coming November 2018 midterm, want a nomination sealed and delivered before election day.  They know there is a coming accounting for their inexcusable placement of party over nation and they see Kavanaugh as one final reward before their caskets start being politically sealed for a generation.

And so we have a stand-off, not just between Senate Democrats and Republicans, but between a nation of women, most of whom know that Blasey Ford is telling the truth because we know the kind of courage it takes for a woman to come forward and tell her story.  I don’t believe that all men engage in the behavior that Kavanaugh demonstrated; I know plenty of men who are decent people drunk or sober.  I am willing to believe that Kavanaugh only did it once.  But I don’t excuse irresponsible teenage behavior that comes without regret and a willingness to change its ways.  My problem isn’t just the assault, it’s Kavanaugh’s unwillingness to be forthright about what happened.  

We are in a strange place as a nation, with a dishonest and dishonorable man in the White House, the leader of a party whose moral conscience is largely made up of cowardly jelly.  The Republican party can see its reckoning on the horizon.  When I bet against Kavanuagh’s confirmation, I never expected to win but it feels close and even if I lose my dollar and Kavanaugh is sworn into the Court, I have a powerful feeling that we are closing in on a reckoning that will change this nation forever.  I can already smell the hope and change coming our way.