Congressional Elections, part II

The House is only half of the legislative game, of course, so I've also got profiles of some key Senate races. In the Senate, with 100 seats, the margin of party control is slimmer. Technically speaking, both parties control 49 seats. Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut currently caucuses with the Democrats, as does Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. That gives the Democrats the edge in terms of committee chairs, with a functional 51-49 split. There are 35 seats up for election in the Senate this fall (both seats in Mississippi are up....see below for details). Of those races, 9 look competitive. And here the odds are intriguing: 8 of those seats belong to incumbent Republicans on the hot seat; only 1 incumbent Democrat is similarly uncomfortable. So it's likely the Democrats will improve their hold on the Senate, though it's unlikely they will achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

1. Alaska: Who knew that Alaska would become the focus of national politics in this year's election? Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens has been serving Alaska in the Senate since 1968, when he was appointed to serve the remaining term of his deceased predecessor. Since then, Stevens has been elected to 6 full terms on his own. This year, he is also under suspicion of a federal indictment for influence peddling. His trial is slated to start in early October. All of this has made the race attractive to Democrats, who don't often win state-wide office in Alaska. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is hoping to change that. Polls show that Begich currently has the slight lead in the race, but Stevens hasn't given up yet. The race is worth watching.

2. Colorado: Incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard is retiring. Two well-known Coloradons are facing off to replace him. The Democrat is Mark Udall, a former member of the State House, a current member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the son of Mo Udall, who served in the Colorado House delegation for 30 years. Udall is running against Republican Bob Schaffer, a former member of the Colorado State Senate, a 3-term ex-member of Congress, a current member of the Colorado State Board of Education and an '04 candidate for the Senate. This is a big match-up featuring two well-known candidates; the current edge goes to Udall but you can expect this race to be competitive.

3. Louisiana: Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is the only incumbent Democratic Senator expected to face a tough contest this fall. For a while it seemed that Landrieu might lose to Republican John Kennedy, the state's current Treasurer and a former Democrat. But things have evened out lately and Landrieu has the slight edge at the moment. Can she hold on to it?

4. Minnesota: Republican Senator Norm Coleman is near the end of his first term in the Senate and he's struggled to remain popular in the state. Helping to pound the nails in his coffin is Democrat Al Franken, a native Minnesotan and former SNL actor, with a long-standing interest in politics. Franken has been campaigning for the seat for nearly two years. Gumming up the works is former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley, running as an Independent. Polls show this race to be tight, with both Coleman and Franken taking a turn as the leader. Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss-up...it isn't over yet.

5. Mississippi: Republican Trent Lott retired from the Senate last year and the Governor of the state appointed Republican Roger Wicker to serve until an election could be held. Wicker is seeking to hold the seat, facing off against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi Governor. Wicker and Musgrove are seeking to earn the seat for two more years. In the other Mississippi seat, incumbent Senator Thad Cochrane is expected to coast to victory. But can the GOP hold both seats this fall? That may be a tough challenge. Musgrove is a formidable opponent and though Wicker has a slim lead in the most recent polls, the Cook Political Report currently rates this race as a toss-up.

6. North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is seeking a second term as a Tarheel Senator and she currently holds the lead in the race. But she's facing a tough challenger in the form of Democrat Kay Hagan, who has served in the state Senate for 10 years. Hagan is well-respected and well-liked in the state. She's the underdog right now, but there are six weeks to go and Dole hasn't yet sealed the deal. This is a race to watch.

7. New Hampshire: This year, the Granite State is being touted as a swing state for the presidential race. That prospect, a function of the state's increasing friendliness to Democrats, has placed incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu in a tough spot. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was the first woman to be elected Governor in the Granite State; she served for two terms and was well-liked. Shaheen has been running against Sununu since last fall; she left a job at the Harvard Kennedy School to take him on. A recent ARG poll shows Shaheen leading Sununu 52% to 40%. Look for this race to take on a national profile as November approaches.

8. New Mexico: The retirement of incumbent Republican senator Pete Domenici has opened up an opportunity for another member of the Udall family, Democrat Tom Udall, son of conservationist Stewart Udall. Udall is facing off against Republican Tom Pearce. Both Udall and Pearce currently represent New Mexico in the U.S. House and both are well-liked. But Udall has a substantial lead in this race, 56% to 41% according to a recent Survey USA poll, and is planning to cruise to victory. New Mexico is a swing-state in the presidential election, so the race could very tighten up as we come down the stretch.

9. Virginia: Republican incumbent Senator John Warner is retiring from office, leaving this seat up for grabs. One reason that Virginia has made a lot of presidential swing state lists has been the success of Democrat Mark Warner (no relation) in the Old Dominion. Warner was a popular Governor; these days he's seeking the Senate running against Republican Jim Gilmore, also a former Governor. Democrat Warner has a significant lead in state-wide polls right now. Will Virginia be a pick-up for his party?

Update: Thanks to reader RB from Virginia for the correction.....Warner was a one-term Governor in the state. Apparently, the Old Dominion term limits the governor at one term. That's federalism for you.