Congressional Elections

As November 4 gets ever-closer, the nation is caught up in the presidential elections. Certainly that contest is important, but there are also some critical congressional elections coming our way. Today and Wednesday I'll feature profiles of some of the key House and Senate races.

First up is the House of Representatives. There are 435 seats in the House. Democrats currently control 235 seats; the GOP controls 199 seats. 1 seat is currently vacant, the result of the death of Representative Stephanie Tubbs-Jones in late August. All 435 of these seats are up for grabs this fall. Of the seats open because of retirement or folks seeking higher office, there are 7 open Democratic seats and 29 open Republican seats, so the odds tip in favor of the Democratic party continuing to hold the majority in the House. Below are profiles of some of the key races.

1. Alaska - AL: The Land of the Midnight Sun has only one seat in the House so election to it means running statewide. That's one of many reasons that Republican Don Young has been in the seat since winning a special election in 1973. This year, he's caught up in the Stevens scandal (see below) and he's vulnerable to Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, the State Senate Minority Leader. A recent Research 2000 poll shows Berkowitz leading the race with 53% of likely voter support to Young's 39%. Can Berkowitz hold his lead?

2. Alabama – 02: Alabama Republican Representative Terry Everett is retiring from the House this year. He hopes to turn over his seat to Republican Jay Love, a state representative and ex-restaurant owner. Popular Montgomery Mayor and attorney, Democrat Bobby Bright, is hoping for a big Democratic turnout in south Alabama. That won't deliver the state to Obama, but it may deliver Bright to the House of Representatives.

3. Alabama – 05: Democratic incumbent Bud Cramer is retiring from Congress. Republican businessman Wayne Parker, the 1994 and 1996 nominee for this race is hoping that 2008 will prove his lucky year. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator, local physician, and veteran is banking on holding the seat for the Democratic party.

4. Colorado – 04: Marilyn Musgrave has been a cultural warrior in Colorado politics; a proudly outspoken Republican social conservative. But in her most recent television ad, asking for a 4th term in the House, Musgrave doesn't mention that she's a Republican. More than anything else, that's a sign that Colorado-04 may be up for grabs this year. Democrat Betsy Markey, who served as Democratic Senator Ken Salazar's regional director in the district and has business connections in northern and eastern Colorado, is thinking that this district can be plucked on behalf of the Democrats. She may be right about that.

5. Florida – 21: GOP Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-American representative for this Miami-area district, has been in the U.S. House since 1993. A lawyer and state legislator before he won the seat, Diaz-Balart has always gathered the support of the local Cuban-American community. But the Cubanos may find themselves divided this year as another of their own, Democrat Raul Martinez, the mayor of Hialeah and publisher of the Spanish newspaper El Sol de Hialeah, gives Diaz-Balart a run for his money.

6. Florida – 25: The news isn't much better for another member of the Diaz-Balart family, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is in his third term representing this Miami-area district. After serving for 14 years in the Florida state legislature, Diaz-Balart was elected to the House in 2002. His challenger is Democrat Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic chair and former head of Exodus Project, a successful refugee resettlement program. Garcia is a formidable opponent. Can the younger Diaz-Balart brother do his part to secure the family's political dynasty?

7. Kansas – 02: Frosh Representative Nancy Boyden was first elected to the House in 2006, with a wave of new Democrats who arrived that year. She represents most of eastern Kansas, including Topeka, Leavenworth, and Manhattan. She is well-liked in the state but Democrats never get an easy run is eastern Kansas and Republican Lynn Jenkins, a two-term Kansas State Treasurer ad ex-state representative, is hoping to send Boyden home. Cook Political report currently rates this race a toss-up.

8. Louisiana – 06: This race features a good-old-fashioned Southern wrestling match of partisan politics. The incumbent Democrat, Don Cazayoux, served in the Louisiana state house for three terms before he won election to the House in a May '08 special election held after the retirement of incumbent Representative Richard Baker. Cazayox's win was a bit of surprise – LA-06 has been held by the Republican party for years. Enter GOP state senator and physician Bill Cassidy, campaigning on a platform of keeping the GOP in charge of LA-06. Will raising the Republican flag be a mistake this election year? Cazayoux sure hopes so as he fights to hold on to the seat.

9. New Hampshire – 01: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is a frosh member of the House seeking re-election. Shea-Porter is the first woman the Granite State has sent to federal office. And the man she beat in 2006? That would be GOP-nominee Jeb Bradley, who is seeking a re-match this year. The race has been a tense affair, as you might imagine. Will southeastern New Hampshire return Shea-Porter for a second term or will Bradley get his old job back?

10. New Mexico – 01: New Mexico found all three of its House members seeking to be their party's nominee for the open Senate seat. So this seat, which currently belongs to Republican Heather Wilson, is open. Two young, dynamic, and popular leaders are vying to get the seat. Republican Darren White is the current Bernalilo County Sheriff and a former Secretary of Public Safety. He's also a veteran. Democrat Martin Heinrich is a former director of an environmental non-profit, an appointee to the New Mexico Natural Resources Board, and a current member of the Albuquerque City Council. This race is expected to be close.

11. Ohio – 01: Republican Steve Chabot has represented Ohio-01 since 1994. The district, in southern Ohio, includes Cincinnati and has been reliably Republican for the last 15 years. But the GOP has some troubles in Ohio this year and Democrat Steve Driehaus, a Peace Corp veteran, the state house minority whip, and a community development consultant, is under the impression that Chabot is vulnerable. Ohio is also a presidential swing state this year. The race could be a barn-burner.

12. Ohio – 15: Republican Deb Pryce has run in tight races for most of her career in the House. This year she's retiring and the seat is up for grabs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran against Pryce in 2006, is in the race this year. Kilroy has name recognition in the district as a result of her previous run and her service as Franklin County Commissioner and on the Columbus School Board. Republican Steve Stivers, a state senator and Desert Storm War veteran, is hoping to hold the 15th for his party. Ohio-15 is a classical swing district. Which way will it swing this year?

13. Pennsylvania – 10: Frosh representative Chris Carney won this district in 2006, one of a number of Democrats who swept into the House that year. Carney is a Navy Reservist and was a professor at Penn State at Scranton before he went to D.C. His opponent this year is businessman Chris Hackett. Pennsylvania-10 is a classical swing district in a swing state. Will Carney hold on?