Election Day

On election day 2016, I came home and started to put together the snacks that would form our celebratory Election Night supper.  As I listened to the news on NPR, I sliced cheeses and set out crackers for our customary cheese tray.  I was excited and confident that the end of the night would see a Hillary Clinton victory.  I’d been waiting since I was 16 and at the age of 48 I would finally see a woman elected president.  

We all know how that turned out.

Since that day, we’ve had ample cause and time to regret the outcome of the 2016 election.  No more so than this year, when the steep cost of presidential incompetence shows itself in a daily death count that makes me heartsick.  For every cheese tray I’ve made since 2016 (and we love a cheese tray, so there have been plenty) there is a moment when I reflect on that horrible day in 2016.  I remember the day's excitement as it curdled to dismay and then fear.  I remember the dull anxiety that took hold as we waited out the last days of 2016 and the cold January day in 2017 when I listened too Donald Trump take the oath of office.  

Today is the start of taking back our government.  The list of problems that President Biden and the Democratic Congress will inherit is long and frightening.  But we are a nation filled with smart people who are willing to do the heavy lifting necessary to solve these problems.  And with a president and a Congress willing to lead,  a people willing toe compassionate and kind, it can be done.  It must be done.  This election is a referendum on whether or not we really believe that all of us are created equal and deserve liberty and justice for all.  With all of my heart, I know that the answer is yes.

Let’s. Go.

Truth and 2020

I have a vivid memory of reading about each of the lives of the people killed in the Sandy Hook shooting. For some time, I had taken to doing this for every mass shooting - as if knowing more about the people killed by massive gun violence would be another thing I could do to end the needless deaths.

Sandy Hook was especially hard for me because so many children were involved.  But I did it, convinced that this time things would be different.  Surely, I told myself, this nation would not bury so many 1st graders without taking action to prevent more mass shootings.

I was wrong, of course, and to this day I remain stunned by our callous national indifference to a preventable phenomena.  After Sandy Hook, I continued to support anti-gun measures.  But I quit reading obituaries.  It was too hard on my heart.

I think of this as I mark our approach to 100,000 American dead because of COVID-19.  This morning’s New York Times sits on my desk, its tiny font showing me just of fraction of the people we have lost.  

It’s not as if I didn’t know.  New Jersey has been hit hard by the virus.  I know people who have died of COVID-19.  I know people who are grateful to have survived it.  But the depth of this loss is powerful when viewed in this fashion.

When this new year began, I wrote in my journal that I was glad of the arrival of 2020 because it would be the year that we discard Donald Trump and elect a new president.  I’m not the only person who breathed a sigh of relief that we had made it this far without an epic disaster made far worse because of Donald Trump.

And here we are.

In all fairness, a pandemic is bound to leave its mark on our nation and the world - that’s why its called a pandemic.  Trump is not directly responsible for each of the 100,000 dead in this nation.  But his failure in leadership matters to all of the dead, to the families they leave behind, to all of us.  

The United States is, at best, an imperfect nation.  But our leadership in the world has mattered; it still matters.  In this time of universal need, we could be making a difference.  There is a need to coordinate a worldwide effort to create a testing regime, to organize a national system for contact tracing that could serve as a model for other nations to follow, to organize our own national resources to look after states’ needs for medical supplies so that the supply of ventilators, medications, and PPE needn’t fall short.

The list is long; much longer than this.

Instead, our president has lied and dissembled; has dodged responsibility, and has purposely failed to lead.  He has settled for 100,000 dead as if that is not an epic failure.  Under the NYT headline read the words, “They Were Not Simply Names on a List.  They Were Us.”  We must hold this truth close as we find our way forward.

The Framers Can’t Protect Us from Ourselves

As the farce that is the Republican-controlled Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump unfolds, I find myself turning toward the coming Democratic primary elections as a sort of tonic against the madness that is this trial.  It’s not that I don’t support the impeachment: I emphatically do and could happily add a half dozen more charges to the list.  But I can already see the writing on the wall:  the Republican Senators plan to carry water for their president and this entire process is going to be play acting of the very worst sort.

It’s not that the players lack seriousness.  The Democratic House managers believe the president should convicted and removed.  The Republican Senators are determined to protect their man.  And so we all go through the motions, in the process making a sham of the Constitution.

The resilience of the American experiment is thus being tested.  Watching that process unfold is disturbing and scary.  In his closing remarks on Thursday evening, House impeachment manager Adam Schiff’s emotional conclusion pointed out the fact that the Constitution demands we make decisions between right and wrong.  Then he made the most important point: “The Framers can’t protect us from ourselves.”

It boils down to just that.  We have our republic.  Can we protect and keep it?

The Case for Impeachment

Last week, the House Judiciary Committee advanced two articles of impeachment against President Trump.  In the hand-wringing and the hubbub that has accompanied the whole of the impeachment process, I wish that the talking heads could pause and give themselves - and us - the time to think.

Impeachment is a Constitutional obligation.  But when it happens, it is a political process.  Because of that, and because it has happened before, some of the elected figures in our government - both Republican and Democrat - will treat it as part of politics.  For them, it’s about power: who has it; who wants it; and what can be done with it.

There will be no escaping that view of impeachment, no matter how rock solid the charges against the president may be.  There were Democrats, Jerry Nadler, the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, among them, who called for impeachment of Trump almost from the start.  For them, that was at least as much about the fact that Trump lost the popular vote as anything else.  They felt the will of the people had been subverted in 2016.

Fair enough.  The will of the people had been subverted when Donald Trump secured the presidency.  The people had selected Hillary Clinton.  But the Electoral College, the Constitutional method by which we select the president, chose Donald Trump.  Therefore the presidency was his.  Galling and infuriating as it is, that was the Constitutional outcome in 2016.

But.

There’s always a but.

Winning power is not the same as securing power.  Donald Trump never seemed to understand that and the mistake has cost Donald Trump and the Republican party.  Worse than that, it has cost this nation.  We are three years into a presidency with a president who is wholly unqualified, a liar and cheater at every turn.  He’s a racist, misogynist, thoughtless, ignorant, and unpopular leader.  He has sought to use the presidency to further enrich and empower himself and his business interests.  He has openly asked for foreign interference in American elections.

None of us are under any obligation to ignore these facts. Elected members of Congress, people sworn to uphold the Constitution, must not ignore them and they must enforce the Constitution.  Presidents who violate the Constitution must be impeached.

That is the reality we face right now.  Things will get even uglier as this political process unfolds.  The Senate, controlled by Republicans, is unlikely to vote to remove the President from office. The party of Lincoln has abandoned principle in favor of politics.  But that doesn’t excuse the Democrats from seeking to fulfill their Constitutional obligation.  The process will be ugly and unpleasant; it very likely will further strain the bonds that hold the nation together.  So be it.  

Justice is rarely easy.  This case is no exception.

It’s the White Nationalism, of Course

From the moment I heard news of Friday’s mosque violence in New Zealand, I assumed that the shooting was driven by white nationalism.  Information about the shooter’s manifesto confirmed that suspicion.  Nothing has subsequently shaken it.

We have a problem with white nationalism in this world and especially in the United States.  It’s dangerous and made far worse by those with a stubborn unwillingness to recognize it.  Racism and the preferences of privilege permeate so many of our institutions and we struggle to consistently recognize and confront it.  When we do that, we place those institutions and our nation at risk.  In that atmosphere, white nationalism flourishes and increasingly explodes, as it did in Friday's mosque shooting.

For New Zealand, the shooting seems to be a moment of cultural epiphany; a chance for that nation to have an honest conversation about guns and nationalism.  Good for them.  The United States has had plenty of opportunities to also have an honest conversation about the power of right-wing white nationalism in our politics, but we steadfastly refuse to have that conversation.  From Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma, to the Emanuel AME Church shooting in South Carolina, to last fall’s Tree of Life Synagogue shooting, the overwhelming evidence that white nationalism is alive and well in this nation is there. When we refuse to recognize it and call it out, we set ourselves up for more of this ugly and racist violence.

So let’s call it what it is, confront white nationalism every time we see it, and condemn it without qualification.  Only then can we move forward to do the work and fulfill the promise of the equality we claim for ourselves.  It’s not too late for us to do this work but every time we refuse to acknowledge the truth we put ourselves ever closer to a tipping point from which we cannot recover.

Focus on the Not Normal

It’s nearly impossible to keep pace with the insane political developments  coming out of the Trump White House.  It’s tempting to shout about all of it; all of it is horrifying.  I’ve certainly been guilty of that.  It’s tempting to throw up your hands and laugh hysterically about some of it, and I certainly have been guilty of that as well.  But I’ve come to believe that we need to separate the wheat from the chaff and focus on the Trump actions and developments that are not normal.  

For one thing, some of these developments are a real and genuine threat to our republic and our national interest.  For another, these not normal events are becoming more frequent and to the degree that we do not intervene or criticize them, we are at risk for a republic that will collapse.  

The not normal list is long and getting longer:

- The lies, even about matters on which there is clear evidence.  Not normal.

- A president refusing to release his tax returns. Not normal.

- A president treating the office as a chance to line the pockets of his business interests.  Not normal.

- Presidential family members who have neither been vetted nor received security clearance serving in vital positions, with access to secure information. Not normal.

- Foreign interference in our elections, elections which are the cornerstone of a representative democracy, and a party in control of the White House and Congress absolutely refusing to take action. Not normal.

- A president who makes broad policy pronouncements without consultation with experts or even his advisors or Cabinet members, idiots though some of them are  —— most recently, protectionist tariffs on steel and aluminum announced via an all-caps press release and a series of tweets celebrating the ease of winning a trade war.  Not normal.

- The persistent name-calling as a political tool.  Not normal.

- It’s one thing to disagree with the free press but Trump is actively working to create distrust of the press.  Fake news, alternative facts…..call it what you will.   This behavior is a threat to the republic.  Not normal.

- On the same note, Trump’s persistent efforts to discredit American institutions without any facts to support his claims of bias or ineptitude….the Courts, the FBI, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  Not normal.

Democrats understand the threats this president has created but they cannot stop Trump on their own.  The future of the republic demands leadership against Trump from a few principled Republicans.  Working together, Democrats and Republicans can place our nation back on firm footing.  But the clock is ticking and though I am typically a political optimist, I fear we are close to the point of permanent and lasting damage to our republic.

One Year In

I have a searing memory of Trump’s Inaugural address last year, which presented his dystopian view of America and, in hindsight, gave us a glimpse of the political year he would bring us: blustering lies and bold attempts to turn back every piece of progress that the Obama Administration had managed to secure from the last eight years of a begrudging and polarized Republican party.

In the days immediately after Trump’s ugly January 2017 speech, my students and I studied Jefferson’s inaugural address in 1801, the product of another election that bitterly divided the nation.  In his address, President Jefferson emphasized all the things that bound the nation together and he organized a vision of continued unity, with both political parties, the Federalists and Jeffersonian Republicans, working together in the national interest.  Sparks between the two sides would still fly, but with a measured, thoughtful leader at the helm, the nation didn’t just survive.  It endured.

I keep thinking of 1801 as I assess the year that was 2017 and the year that 2018 is shaping up to be.  I continue to believe that we are living in an era of party change; I think that the Republican party is in the midst of a spectacular smash-up.  But as the party crashes, the nation is experiencing collateral damage that may endure far longer than I anticipated when Trump won the presidency in 2016.  His first year was a wake-up call to the notion that though the presidency isn’t particularly powerful as conceived in the Constitution, it has become very powerful indeed.  It was a reminder that checks and balances in the form of legislative power only work when the legislature is prepared to fulfill its responsibilities.

We don’t have that kind of Congress right now.  Republicans, so polarized that the only thing that unites them is their fear of losing power, have yielded authority to a president that they know to be ill-informed, racist, and self-absorbed.  The current shutdown, an unprecedented event when one party has control of both the executive and legislative branch, is evidence that the GOP has boarded the Trump Train and won’t get off even as it derails.

A party willing to jam through a tax plan that only 30% of the nation approved of can’t pull together a budget plan.  Why?  Because they are torn apart on what to do for the Dreamers and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.  This, even as DACA and CHIP enjoy the support of north of 80% of the American public.  The only thing more irrational than that sentence is today’s Republican party.  

If there is hope for a future it’s got to come from within ourselves.  In a government built upon the nation of “We the people,” it’s well-past time for the people to suit up and require our government to govern in our interests and to do it well.  It’s not easy because we are often an ill-informed citizenry, taking greater joy in name-calling and the news of Kardashians, when we should be doing the hard work of asking difficult questions and informing ourselves.  I have long believed that the people get the government that they deserve.  I believe that the current mess reflects that painful reality.  We must demand better of ourselves as citizens so that we can demand more of our government and leaders.  It won’t be easy but it is not impossible and it is the only path forward.  Greatness must lie within the people; only then can we find the leaders we deserve.

An Open Note to the GOP

You pride yourself on being the party of Ronald Reagan, the grand old party of Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln.  None of those leaders were perfect, though Lincoln may have come close.  But please understand in the coming years that your continued willingness to tolerate Donald Trump will wipe out all those other distinctions and forever brand you the party of Donald Trump.

Whether or not you truly understood that Trump’s rhetoric would normalize the kind of white nationalists who marched in Virginia over the weekend, the fact is that he has done that.  You’ve had plenty of time to see Donald Trump for the bigot and nationalist that he is.  When he ran a campaign promising to make America great again, you knew that meant he longed for a world of unquestioned privilege and power for men like himself.  You put up with it because you hated the Clintons and you wanted a Republican Supreme Court nominee.  It was a craven political calculation.

On Saturday, you reaped the reward for those decisions when your president couldn’t summon the character or the will to stand up and reject white nationalist fascists and Nazi sympathizers. This president is yours now.  In the coming days if you don’t condemn Donald Trump and seek to remove him from office for his obvious abdication of leadership then his stink will taint your party forever.   You will be the party of Trump.  Generations to follow will know that first when the name Republican is invoked.  You will stand for bigotry, intolerance, racism, and exclusion.

Your move, GOP.  One of you must show some courage and take the lead.  The nation is watching.  The clock is ticking.

My America

For all of my professional career, I have labored in the world of American politics and history.  For better or worse, that means that on a daily basis I am thinking about  our republic and the promise of our democracy, its pledge of liberty, and the history that got us here.  More so than most people, I am aware of the failings in our history as a nation; I teach them to my students.  At the same time, I am aware of the promise in our past  I teach that as well.  I’ve always chosen to believe that the promise will prevail.  So great is my faith that I named my son after one of our founders, a decision I have never regretted.

I’m not going to say that Donald Trump has shaken my faith in the promise of American liberty; that would be giving one mean-spirited man too much power in my world.  But I find he and his supporters profoundly disappointing.  They wave the flag in one fist, shake the other in fury, and spout invective and ignorance in equal measure.  It’s not hard to disagree with a political opponent who lacks command or understanding of the basic facts.  But it is hard to respect them.  They aren’t my America.

My friends and I joke about moving to Canada in the event that November brings an unthinkable outcome.  But we’re not cowards and this is our nation as well.  It’s our responsibility to remind one another of the nobler purposes in our shared past.  On the 4th of July, that reminder is timely.

My America is the Seneca Falls Declaration of Sentiments and a pledge to demand a fair share of independence and equality for women.  It’s the Emancipation Proclamation and Lincoln’s “unfinished work.”  My nation is the golden lamp held high for the “tired, huddled masses yearning to be free.” It’s Franklin Roosevelt’s four freedoms.  My nation is the land of Martin Luther King’s dream, and the expectation that we will all work toward that progress.   My America is the world’s refuge for freedom.  

Fellow citizens, let's not forget that it is these promises that give meaning to the United States.  They belong to us all and it is in them that the path to greatness is paved. 

Primary Tuesday: Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island

On the heels of the mutual-assisted suicide plan stirred up by John Kasich and Ted Cruz, whereby they divide up the remaining states and stop campaigning against one another in order to insure that T-rump doesn’t reach his magic delegate total, T-rump is about the score some big points in today’s voting.  The Republican party primary is basically a contest between shiftless jackals and today’s lead jackal is going to be T-rump, who isn’t capable of being thoughtful or presidential, led alone gracious in victory.

T-rump will win in all four states today, with over 50% of the vote in both Connecticut and Rhode Island.  He’ll win Maryland and Pennsylvania as well, but with just a shade less than 50% of the vote, meaning that the combined Cruz-Kasich share of the vote will be greater.  This will lend itself to yet another round of delegate-math speculation, so we’ve got that going for us.

Over on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is going to be coming up roses today.  She’ll win Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, with over 50% of the vote in all three states.  

Bernie Sanders will score a victory in Rhode Island, but it will be be less than 2 percentage points.  The end of the road is closing in on the Sanders’ campaign after tonight, a fact that the candidate seems to understand.

Once the Democrats close ranks for Clinton, the buffoonery of the Republican campaign will be even more apparent (yes, that’s possible).  

If You Can Make it Here You Are Probably a Front-Runner Anyway: New York Primary

My proximity to New York ensures that I am all up in the New York primary, which happens today.  From ads for Bernie to my local NPR station's daily Donald Trump story, today's electoral contest has been inescapable for the past few weeks.  New Yorkers are rather giddy at the prospect that their votes will shape the voter choices in the 2016 contest, though giddy in a brassy, opinionated, New York kind of way.  

Let’s start with the GOP.  Donald Trump is from Queens and he can claim New York as home.  Upstate, he’s likely to be appealing as well, though it’s an appeal that comes from his name recognition and not his ideas.  Neither Ted Cruz nor John Kasich are any competition for Trump and he will win the state so the real contest is about the numbers.  If Trump wins more than 50% of the state’s GOP voters as well as a majority in the state's Congressional districts, he will get ALL of the state’s delegates.  I expect that he will come in at 53% and he does have a shot at every Congressional district.  Kasich will take second, with 24% of the vote and Cruz will roll in third, with 18% of the vote.  Trump will be very close to the GOP threshold for the nomination coming out of this race, so expect more conversations about a brokered Republican convention as we move forward.

Over on the Democratic side, both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton can also lay claim to New York.  Sanders was born and raised in Brooklyn; Clinton moved to the state and represented it in the Senate.  The contest between them is real and will be shaped by the demographics of their supporters.  Both have been airing ads in the state and in those commercials their demographics are laid bare.  Sanders is hoping that students, labor activists, and the Working Family Party  will come out in big numbers; Clinton is looking to score big with women and African American voters in the state.  Bernie may sound like a New Yorker, but Hillary’s connection with the state’s are the real deal and run deeper.  The state’s delegates will be awarded by Congressional district for the Democrats so both Sanders and Clinton will score some off them.  Clinton  will score more with 54% of the vote and a majority of the state’s delegates.  Sanders will come in at just a shade over 44%.  

Rather ironically, both sets of voters in the state will be casting a majority of their ballots on behalf of the established front runners.  So much for shaking things up, New York.  We’re headed to Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania next week…..the circus isn’t over yet, folks.

March 15 Primaries

Super Tuesday was just two weeks ago and represented the season's biggest haul of delegates for candidates on both sides of the aisle.  It was important in the sense that it winnowed the list of candidates seeking the Republican nomination but there’s an argument to be made that today’s voting in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio is even more important.  

Some of the states in today’s GOP contests are winner-take-all.  A victory in a place like Florida or Ohio means taking all of the state’s delegates to the convention, upping the odds that the Republican party will move forward with Donald Trump an increasingly powerful contender in their leadership conversations.  On the Democratic side, today’s contests in Illinois and Ohio offer a chance for Bernie Sanders to capitalize on the labor support he pulled together in Michigan.  So it’s a big day.  How will it play out?

Let’s take the Republican contest first.  Tonight will be the last night we’ve got Marco Rubio to kick around as he’s headed for a loss in Florida, which will go to Trump.  Rubio will come in second, but that won’t be enough and he will drop out of the race.  

Last week’s cancelled Trump rally in Illinois may have scared that state’s voters and I think that things will be close in Illinois, with Cruz closing in on Trump and winning by the slimmest of margins.  Next door to Illinois, polling in Missouri is non-existent but Missouri is a southern state with a large collection of evangelical voters, with whom Ted Cruz has tended to do well.  Cruz won Kansas next door and I’m feeling good about Cruz in Illinois so what the hell…..I call the Show Me state for Cruz.  

That leaves North Carolina and Ohio.  Kasich is the incumbent governor of the Buckeye State and he will win Ohio with Trump coming in second.  

And so it boils down to North Carolina, where Trump leads the polls.  He won South Carolina and he will win Florida; I call North Carolina for Trump.

The final GOP  total for the night will be one victory for Kasich and two each for Cruz and Trump.  That doesn’t provide much clarity in the Republican contest, so I think we can expect that that GOP establishment will continue to dither.  Each day that they do so raises the prospect of a divided GOP heading into the convention and then the general election.  That, of course, is the price a party pays when it has no one willing to lead.

The Democrats are also voting today.  It will be a big night for Hillary Clinton; she will prevail in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina.  Florida is a southern state with plenty of northeastern Democratic retirees and she’s polled well there all along.  Illinois is her home state and has a powerful African American voting bloc.  Missouri and North Carolina are southern states; the sorts of places where Hillary does well.  

But the night won’t be a complete victory for Clinton; Sanders will edge out a victory in Ohio, where the state’s Democratic voters look a great deal like Michigan Democrats.  From here, the Democrats head west where Sanders should do well.  

The upshot: neither of these contests are over.

In Search of Leadership

Today’s primary voting happens in the context of Donald Trump rallies becoming more and more unsettling, with threats of violence and the kind of rhetoric that most of us believe is bad for the nation.  And therein lies the most troubling element of this campaign.  Donald Trump may be leading the GOP delegate race and he is “winning” many of the states in which he is competing for the nomination, but Trump’s victories are won with vote totals that have not yet exceeded 50%.  The totals of Trump’s opponents show that over 50% of the Republican voters want someone other than Trump but that’s not how these contests work.  As mainstream Republicans realize they are headed to a convention with a leading candidate who does not represent a majority of their party’s voters, they are seeing that there is a reckoning at hand.

The most troubling element of this reckoning is the failure of most mainstream Republicans to condemn Trump.  Mitt Romney took a brave step to oppose Trump; very few followed him.  A few Republicans are distancing themselves.  For example, Marco Rubio is willing to say that it’s getting harder and harder to consider support for Trump, should he secure the nomination.  But, honestly, that’s about it.  Congressional Republican leaders Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are publicly silent on the Trump issue, even while they make behind-the-scenes plans to help Republicans who are seeking re-election to Congress to find distance between themselves and Trump.  They are so afraid to lose that they are unwilling to lead.

It may be that when the Republican party gets to their August convention they will be willing to have some hard conversations about who they nominate to lead the nation.  But it would be disheartening to have to wait that long.  And if we need to wait that long, how confident can we be in a party that let it come to this?  

I’m a Democrat and I should be amused at the disarray in the Republican party.  I am not.  I believe that a vibrant democracy requires public debates of a range of ideas; we must give serious policy proposals a full airing before we commit to solutions.  Disagreements must be cordial, with neither dismissive rhetoric nor  threats of violence in the mix.  The genius of our nation has long been in our ability to compromise.  When we have failed to do so, as we did in the Civil War, the results are spectacularly awful.  To know this about ourselves and still take the risk is a dangerous move to the edge of a slippery slope.

Michigan and Mississippi

Primary voting today occurs in two states with very significant demographic and voting differences.  Both Democrats and Republicans are voting in Michigan; only Democrats are casting primary ballots in Mississippi.  We’ll start with Mississippi, which is the easier of the two to predict.  

Mississippi’s  Democratic voters have a significantly large and influential African American block and Clinton’s well-established strength with these voters will play out as expected.  Score Mississippi for Hillary Clinton.

And now we’ve landed in with the Michiganders.  Michigan is a state with a large blue collar labor force, many of whom are the type of voters who are known as Reagan Democrats; blue collar labor workers who supported Reagan in 1980 and have continued to lean Republican despite the fact that the party is not known for its pro-labor policies.  That demographic group is going to matter on both sides of the primary.   For Democrats, the labor constituency will divide between Sanders and Clinton, with a slim majority of them in Sanders’ corner.  However, I think that Clinton will prevail in the state  because she will pick up African American voters by a wide majority.  Though Sanders has begun to close the gap, Clinton will take Michigan by a narrow margin.

The Republican contest in the Great Lakes state is a more complicated situation.  Trump’s populism is likely to gain traction among many of the Republican voters, especially the Reagan Democrat core.  Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio will split what remains and though their totals may exceed the Donald, I think that Trump will take home a victory tonight, with final numbers in the mid 30s.

Kasich will come in second, with a final voter tally in the mid-20s and Cruz just behind him.  The big news of the night will be that Rubio rolls in fourth, with support below 20%.  Rubio's campaign will still hold on for the Florida contest on March 15 but with each day that passes, that contest is more and more a do-or-die event for little Marco.

Wednesday morning update:  I failed to include Idaho and Hawaii in my predictions; moreover, I missed the fact that Mississippi Republicans were also voting yesterday.  I'm not sure why I made these errors, but perhaps it has to do with the fact that my predictions for Tuesday were off?

By a narrow margin, Sanders took Michigan, not Clinton.  That's an interesting development and makes next Tuesday's contests even more important for the Democrats.  Trump won Michigan and Mississippi.  Cruz came in second, just 1 point over Kasich.  Rubio was fourth.  In Idaho, Cruz pulled out a victory.  Two things about this are notable: First, the Trump alternative seems to be Cruz, which must horrify establishment Republicans.  Second, Rubio is looking more and more like a candidate on life support.

There is Some Voting Today

Today’s contests are rather all over the map, both caucuses and primaries.  All told, there is voting today and Sunday in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska.  Let’s start with the Republican caucus contests.  

Republicans are caucusing today in Kansas, Kentucky, and Maine.  We are long past the days when Kansas sent forth moderate, thoughtful, leadership-oriented Republicans (think Alf Landon, Nancy Kassebaum, Bob Dole).  Nope, these days, Kansas Republican voters bring the crazy.  They’ve got lots of choices in the crazy category in this year’s GOP contest but they’ll go for Ted Cruz, by a smidge.

Kentucky Republicans will also be caucusing today, a choice they made when favorite son Rand Paul was still in the presidential race (remember him?).  Kentucky law wouldn’t permit Paul to be a primary candidate for both the Senate and the presidency.  Rand hates government so much he wanted to be a candidate for both jobs and he persuaded the Bluegrass State to caucus, where he could be a presidential candidate without breaking the laws.  Now he’s out of the presidential race and the caucus victory will go to Trump, who is faring well in the South. 

Maine Republicans are also holding a caucus and their governor has endorsed Trump.  That might carry some weight with Maine voters, so put Maine in his column as well.  The only Republican primary today is in Louisiana.  Texan Cruz held on in Texas and its neighbor state, Oklahoma.  But he hasn’t been much of a presence in Louisiana so the state’s Republican voters will likely choose the party’s national leader: score this one for Trump.

It’s notable that Marco Rubio is about to have another bad day.  I’m not going to declare his campaign on life support but it’s damn close.

Democrats also have a combination of caucuses and primaries today.  Kansas and Nebraska will both hold a caucus.  Both of these states are Republican strongholds and the Democrats there are a small but hearty lot, typically with populist, liberal tendencies.  Score both of these states for Sanders.

Democrats in Maine will caucus tomorrow.  Clinton surprised me when she held on to Massachusetts on Super Tuesday and I think that Maine Democrats will lean the same way.  The only Democratic primary today is in Louisiana.  Clinton has been on fire among Southern Democrats and she’ll win the Bayou State.

The Democratic contest is alive and well; the candidates are both organized and thoughtful, with detailed plans for governing and the kind of rhetoric we expect serious candidates to speak.  The Republicans are a train wreck and like most bloody smash-ups, it’s awfully hard to avert my eyes.  But make no mistake, we’re seeing the break-up of the Republican party and things are going to get a lot more unpleasant before this is over.

Super Tuesday Primary Predictions: March 1

Twelve states and American Samoa are voting today.  The different regions involved ensure that there are all sorts of outcomes to consider.  Moreover, regionally, the outcomes for Democrats and Republicans matter in varied ways.  So I’ll take this by party and by region, skipping American Samoa.

Let’s start with the Republicans in the South, the region they must win in a solid block to grab the White House in November.  The Southern states voting today include Alabama, Arkansa, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.  

Let’s go state-by-state but first begin by recognizing that once we get to these multi-state contest days, the national landscape shapes voter perceptions in a big way.  That favors Trump nearly across the board.  The only saving grace if you are Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio is that delegates are still being awarded proportionally, meaning they have a shot at getting a few.  

Trump will take Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia.  Rubio has a shot to come in close to Trump in Virginia, a state with a wide swath of moderate Republican voters.  That state will come in for Trump and then Rubio.  Ted Cruz should take Texas, his home state, and if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see his path forward.  Both Rubio and Cruz have a shot at Arkansas.  Rubio has the support of some of the state’s leading Republicans; Cruz enjoyed a slim lead in the most recent state-wide poll.  One of them will take the Natural State…..I predict Rubio.  

So that’s rather a Trump landslide and now we say goodbye to the land of grits and sweet tea and travel north.  The Republican vote in Colorado is not binding, so there is very little polling there.  But Colorado Republicans are a more diverse and tolerant crowd.   Turnout will matter here and if it’s high, Rubio has a shot.  It will be low and it will go to Trump.

In Massachusetts and Vermont, the GOP crowd is moderate.  These folks will go the route of Marco Rubio.  Kasich will roll in second.  The same can be said for Minnesota Republicans, where I see Rubio as the winner.  

Please note that Carson is still campaigning but he’s done after tonight.  Thanks for playing, Ben.

The story for the Democrats is going to be a good night for Hillary Clinton.  She will take all of the Southern states with the exception of Oklahoma, which is less diverse than the other Southern states and is a Sanders pick up.  

Moving out of the South, Sanders should prevail in his home state of Vermont and he should look good in Massachusetts, though Clinton has the polling lead.  Based on his very good February fund-raising numbers I’m going to call Massachusetts for Sanders.  If he doesn’t win here, in a state next door to his home state, it’s hard to see his path forward.

In Colorado, Sanders should score a narrow victory.  I think that will also be the case in Minnesota.  Both states are caucus votes today and those favor true believers, an enthusiastically liberal crowd in the Democratic party.  They’ll select Sanders.

All told, it will be a big night for Clinton though Sanders (and his fund-raising!) will be robust heading toward March 15.  I still think that the eventual Democratic nomination will go to Clinton, though the contest has been surprisingly competitive.

It’s going to be a long night but when it’s done, the take away story will be Clinton and Trump.  We’re getting closer to the eventual nominees.  In at least one instance, that scares the hell out of me. Looking at you, The Donald.

South Carolina Primary: Predictions

Between Friday’s announcement that the bluster and bully duo of Chris Christie and Donald Trump are stumping for T-rump in Texas and the coming apocalypse that is March 1st’s Super Tuesday, it would be easy to lose sight of the fact that South Carolina Democratic voters are headed to the polls today.  But they are headed to the polls and Hillary Clinton is about to score a solid win.  She’ll take South Carolina by more than 20 points, a sign of her robust support among African American voters who are a core constituency of the Democratic party.

Before the night is out, we’ll be turning our attention to Super Tuesday.  I’m still in the production game, so you’ll hear from me on Tuesday.  

The GOP Circus is in Nevada Today: Predictions

The Democrats caucused on Saturday but the Republicans are in Nevada today.  Don’t try and make sense of this, just know that the Donald is looking to make additional inroads in the land of casinos and strippers.

Keeping in mind the fact that a caucus vote typically features low turnout, I still think that Trump will end the night in the 30% range.  I think that second place will go to Rubio, with a final result in the mid-to high teens, not because he’s done much in Nevada (none of these jackals really have), but because a low turnout event like a caucus is more likely to be shaped by the national media landscape, and Rubio is currently ticking upward as the mainstream GOP parks in his corner.  I see Cruz coming in third in the lower teens and fourth heading the way of Kasich, in the single digits.  Carson, who is still in a campaign, though I can’t fathom why, will roll in with a fifth place turnout, I suppose looking to hold on until Super Tuesday.  And make no mistake, March 1 is looking to be one hell of a political ride.  Here we go…….

A Primary, A Caucus, Oh My: South Carolina and Nevada Predictions

The American primary election schedule is a strange and mysterious beast with nearly no rationale and plenty of hubris.  Though various presidential primaries have been in existence since the early 20th century, they didn’t carry a great deal of influence until the 1960s, when both the Democratic and Republican party began to flirt with selecting their presidential candidates via primary elections instead of nominating conventions.

When that transition developed, New Hampshire’s primary was first on the calendar and became important.  The state held onto its first-in-the-nation status by making it a state constitutional requirement and strong-arming the national parties to agree to the arrangement.  Iowa had a caucus scheduled just before the New Hampshire primary but because it was a caucus (and, let’s face it, in Iowa), it was rather an also-ran until 1976 when a candidate named Jimmy Carter used his showing in the Iowa Caucus to demonstrate electoral viability that might translate to the national stage.  

Since then, the rest of us have been forced to believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are somehow worthy of getting a first crack at the candidates.  Though neither of these contests is famous for actually picking the eventual nominee, they typically serve to winnow the list of potential nominees.  This kind of influence is sought by other states, of course.

Enter South Carolina and Nevada, states that also lay claim to being useful for early contests.

In the case of South Carolina, a southern state, an early primary here does give us a glimpse about how candidates will fare in Dixie, which can still be called the solid South.  That’s more important for Republicans than Democrats, and South Carolina has thus wedged its way into the early primary calendar.

Nevada is a relatively new addition to the early voting race and the state’s contest is a caucus.  As a Western state, Nevada technically might show candidate viability in this region of the country.  In 2008, candidate Barack Obama’s strong showing in the Nevada contest gave the contest greater credibility and thus visibility.  Nevada is a state with a population whose demographics shift significantly from year to year, including a large and growing assortment of Latino and African-American voters, demographic groups that are important to the national viability of the Democratic party.  For the Republicans, Nevada is not expected to be a state that is part of whatever national victory the party pieces together in November, but its relative diversity is interesting for the national GOP, as they contemplate their future in an increasingly diverse nation.

In 2016, the national party’s primary calendars are not fully coordinated so today’s contests include a Republican primary vote in South Carolina and a Democratic Caucus vote in Nevada.  It’s peculiar and will rather divide our attention today.

Still reading?  It’s time for the heart of the matter: predictions.

Let’s start with Nevada’s Democratic caucus contest.  Even on a Saturday, a caucus is still a low turn-out event, especially for the party most attractive to working class Nevadans, as the Democratic party is.  Here, organizational groundwork is essential and that means the advantage goes to Hillary Clinton, who should win the contest by 4-5 percentage points.

The Republican contest in South Carolina will feature a truckload of evangelical voters and, like New Hampshire, should winnow the number of contestants.  In theory, evangelical voters should be looking to Ted Cruz as their savior but Donald Trump is funneling a lot of evangelical voters his way, perhaps a sign that Trump’s brand of discontentment populism is more salient to these voters than religion.  That possibility is worth exploring down the line, especially if Trump’s appeal in Southern contests holds firm.  Marco Rubio has the support of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley; Rubio is increasingly the establishment’s candidate, a designation that has been important in previous years but doesn’t seem to hold the same weight in 2016 Republican circles.

So…how does this messy contest unfold?

Let’s dispense with the easy calls first.  John Kasich’s number two showing in New Hampshire won’t matter in the Palmetto state and he’ll finish fifth.  Fourth place will go to Jeb Bush.  Both of them will probably stay alive for the March 1st Super Tuesday contest, with high single digit-low double digit showings.  Former voter darling Ben Carson is going to come in sixth, with numbers in the low single digits.  His campaign is done.  

That leaves the top three finishers.

God save us, but it’s looking like Donald Trump will win in South Carolina.  If he’s north of 35%, then we need to start believing that Trump is going to be around for a while and might actually score himself the Republican nomination or foster a battle royale brokered convention.  I believe Trump will be north of 30% but just below 35% in South Carolina; still a cause for concern if you are the national Republican party.

I am not in that party; moreover I do not think that Trump can win a general election.  I do think he is actively bad for the Republican party; not to mention the republic.  I no longer find him the least bit amusing.  But this post is already way too long, so we’ll explore that rich vein later.

I will call second place for Marco Rubio by just a smidge over the persistently unlikeable Ted Cruz, with the two of them in the mid-20s.  The unpleasant trio of Trump, Rubio, and Cruz will then head into super-Tuesday with the gloves off.

Yuck.

Circular Firing Squad: 2016 edition

In the aftermath of the 2012 election and its endless rounds of primary debates, the Republican party determined that in 2016 they would avoid the circular firing squad that election’s primary debate season entailed.  Instead of endless candidate debates featuring every jackal who was a declared Republican presidential candidate, they would set a public opinion poll requirement for debate participation.  After some back and forth, they set the bar at the top 10 candidates, meaning that the top 10 candidates in national polls would be invited to participate in the 2016 election debates.

Fair enough.

Back when the rules were set, it seemed like a reasonable approach.  The chances of more than 10 serious candidates seemed slim.  This top 10 strategy expected to limit internal sniping and backbiting and lend itself to a serious discussion of the nation’s issues.  Missing from this discussion was the established knowledge of political scientists: early polls are generally name recognition measures and are typically useless when it comes to determining who will emerge as a party’s nominee.  That piece of knowledge turns out to be very important.

Republican candidate debates start this month, more than 14 months before the election.  In keeping with the rules set a few years back, of the 17 candidates (well, 17 as of this writing) only the top 10 polling candidates will be involved.  A system that seemed to make sense has instead created a perverse incentive.  To attract early polling numbers, standing that is essential for continued debate participation, a candidate needs to attract attention.  And what attracts attention the most is over-the-top words and behavior.

With Donald Trump and his ridiculous rhetoric now coming in number 1, the bar for candidates has been set.  And the bar demands attracting media attention.  Full stop.  We all agree that Trump has virtually no serious candidate creds but every time he says something the mainstream media trips over itself to report the inanity……hateful attacks on undocumented immigrants, boneheaded claims about his ability to manage the economy, attacks on John McCain’s bravery as a veteran…..nothing is beyond Trump’s reach and therefore the media’s attention.  The remaining candidates strain to achieve the Trump standard: to the sounds of metal rock, Rand Paul takes a chainsaw to the tax code and releases a video for our enjoyment.  Lindsay Graham films himself destroying his cell phone, an act seemingly necessary after Trump told the world his phone number.   Chris Christie deploys his patented Jersey charm, insulting those who ask questions while he’s on the campaign trail.

The Republican debate rules have created candidates who are Saturday Night Live parodies of serious candidates.  As a Democratic voter, I’ll confess that I am somewhat entertained by the ridiculous race to buffoonery that GOP rules have stimulated.  But as a citizen who believes that honest political discourse is a real and important obligation of elections in a democratic nation, I’m horrified by Republican candidates who offer a healthcare platform of repealing ACA in favor of “something terrific.” Thanks, Mr. Trump, but I want a few more details on what “terrific” looks like.

Genuine electoral competition is necessary to sustain the republic.   I find myself wondering if a single Republican candidate can rise out of this morass to fashion an idea-based campaign to compete against the Democratic candidate.  As I’m not a Republican and unlikely to vote for that party’s candidate, this doesn’t matter for me as a voter, but it does matter to me as a citizen.   I have long-standing belief that we get the government we deserve, the outcome of our civic engagement as a nation.  It frightens me that current Republican presidential crop may be exactly what we deserve.    As for me, I want better for my nation.