Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The GOP Circus is in Nevada Today: Predictions

The Democrats caucused on Saturday but the Republicans are in Nevada today.  Don’t try and make sense of this, just know that the Donald is looking to make additional inroads in the land of casinos and strippers.

Keeping in mind the fact that a caucus vote typically features low turnout, I still think that Trump will end the night in the 30% range.  I think that second place will go to Rubio, with a final result in the mid-to high teens, not because he’s done much in Nevada (none of these jackals really have), but because a low turnout event like a caucus is more likely to be shaped by the national media landscape, and Rubio is currently ticking upward as the mainstream GOP parks in his corner.  I see Cruz coming in third in the lower teens and fourth heading the way of Kasich, in the single digits.  Carson, who is still in a campaign, though I can’t fathom why, will roll in with a fifth place turnout, I suppose looking to hold on until Super Tuesday.  And make no mistake, March 1 is looking to be one hell of a political ride.  Here we go…….

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