New Year's Resolution

I have had enough therapy so that while I am still certifiable, I do know better than to make any new year's resolutions. Therefore, this is not a post about my new year's resolutions, which I don't need to make because I'm already perfect.

Hah.

But the second graders are still under construction and when I was in their class last week to read a book to the boy and his classmates, I noticed that all of the second graders have made a new year's resolution.

My son resolved to read more books. Yes, that's right: TO READ MORE BOOKS.

My work here is done.

January 12, 1971

One of my very first memories is from the day she was born. I'm three years old, standing in the kitchen in the house on Pico Street, holding the phone to my ear. My father tells me that my mom had the baby and it's a girl. I'm very excited. And when he also reports that she has curly hair, I'm instantly envious.

The day that the new baby came home from the hospital, family lore has it that I'm so excited to see her that I throw up. It's hardly a good welcome to the world. And it doesn't nearly express how I've felt about my little sister, whom I loved and admired instantly.

As long as I can remember, she's been my buddy and companion. Although I'm the older sister, she's the one who always has looked after me. When I wanted to play school all weekend long, she was a willing student. When I was afraid to ask for something that I wanted, she would boldly take charge. When a bully picked on me in the fifth grade, she defended me. We're grown ups now, no longer "the girls." But she's as firmly in my corner as she ever was, perhaps more so.

When things go badly for me, I turn to her and I know that she'll have the answers. She makes me laugh more than any other person I know. As a fellow parent and teacher, I admire the sensibility she brings to both of those worlds. She's my realist-at-large and I admire her so much that I've forgiven her for her impressive height, the effortless way she looks good in anything she wears, her curly hair, and her knack for being the most photogenic person on the planet.

She's turning 37 today and I want her to know that I'm as proud to be her sister today as I was that day not so long ago when she was born.

Happy Birthday KO.

Cat Haiku

My good friend S is a haiku writer and I admire what she has written (check her out at http://www.butwait.blogspot.com).

Poetry is not in my skill set ------ I am a failed English major after all ------ but the other day, as Tiger was engaged in biting the hand that feeds him, JT composed the following haiku-esque poem.....

He scratches and bites
and yet
we still pet him

Granite State Predictions

For today's New Hampshire primary predictions, AP Government decided to take a shot at predicting vote percentages for the candidates. So, in addition to ranking the final showings, we're giving out numbers.

Live by the numbers or die by the numbers, we'll put ourselves out there.

For the Democrats:
Obama: 36 – 37%
Clinton: 28 – 32%
Edwards: 18 – 20%
Richardson: 4%

For the Republicans:
McCain: 33 – 37%
Romney: 24 – 26%
Huckabee: 10 – 12%
Paul: 8 – 10%

Obviously, the 35% of Granite State voters who identify as Independents will be the big story today. Will they go for McCain or Obama? But we also wonder if Hillary's unexpectedly emotional appearance yesterday will help or hurt her prospects going forward. By a narrow margin, we decided it will help.

If we are right about the Democrats, then the big news out of the Granite State is that Obama is looking good to go. Inevitability is no longer the Clinton claim. And Edwards must now deliver the goods in either Nevada or South Carolina if he is to hold on until February 5th.

And on the GOP side of the fence, McCain has clearly benefited from history (he won this state in 2000) and the abundance of editorial endorsements that he received. Romney will be under pressure to deliver in South Carolina, where he can expect Huckabee to show strong. And Giuliani, who was actually organized in New Hampshire, is looking weaker by the day.

Morning After Update: Wea Culpa
Okay, then. Let's start with the obvious: we missed the impending Clinton surge. We take some comfort in the fact that we weren't alone.

Clearly the historical pride that Granite State voters take in being independent-minded is not mis-placed. Suffice it to say that New Hampshire has been good to the Clinton family. Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire was not a big margin, but given that nearly every poll in the state had her down by 10 points going into the vote on Tuesday, it is suitably impressive. And she has spent the last few days of her campaign speaking more informally, taking impromptu questions from both the press and the public. She's good at that and should have been doing it more often; last night it paid off. We expect more of that in the coming weeks.

The final Democratic numbers from New Hampshire:
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 17%
Richardson: 5%

Our analysis of the GOP vote last night was more accurate. McCain came in at 37%, which was our upper estimate. We figured Romney in the 20s and he came in at 32%; clearly we didn't give him enough credit. At 11%, Huckabee was just where we expected him to be. Giuliani edged out Paul with 9%.......but that won't be enough to keep Rudy's campaign alive.

Democrat John Edwards is in a tricky spot and has a huge uphill battle ahead of him, but he said something last night that resonates this morning: 99% of the nation has yet to vote in a primary contest. A good portion of those folks (more than 50%) will have an opportunity in the coming weeks, especially on February 5th. And it would seem that in both parties we have a real contest on our hands.

It isn't over yet.

Update II: JBro has a nice description of the polling process in the comments section here ..... worth your time. And I share his view of pollster.com as reliable source of polling info; I use it nearly every week in class. Short answer: polling is typically impressively reliable. Except when it's not.

Longest Minute EVER

Last fall when my old elliptical trainer died (sigh), a new elliptical trainer was procured (praise be! tragedy averted). It is a most noble machine, designed for a woman (e.g., no more hyper-extended elbow pain), and it's amazing.

I'm pretty serious about my workouts, running on the elliptical for nearly an hour most days of the week, proceeded and followed by ample stretching (because those two years I spent with a heel spur sucked......not to put too fine a point on it). With the advent of the new machine, I decided to be more systematic (read: anal retentive) about my workouts, following a set regime and switching things up every two months.

The workout I started at the first of the year calls for sprints of 1 minute at regular intervals throughout the workout; a total of 5 sprints in the 35 minute period of the workout when I'm neither warming up nor cooling down. It seemed eminently manageable.

But sweet Jesus, that is the longest minute ever. When my thighs start to burn and I'm convinced that the minute must be over, I'll check the clock only to see that I have 30 seconds yet to go. It's not pretty.

Bookish

Since I first learned to read, I have been a bookish girl. I can still remember the thrill I would feel when I discovered a new series of stories. Some of my best memories are of immersing myself in a story. I can picture the libraries of my childhood as clearly as if I was just there yesterday. I was late to arrive at the hospital on the day I was scheduled to have my labor induced. The reason? I had stopped at the bookstore. I nearly always carry a book with me, just in case I have a moment to read.

My friend E keeps a list of every book she's read on her electronic planner. The first time I learned of the list, I was impressed. So in 2007 I decided to make a list for myself. Below is the list of every book I read in last year. As you'll see, summer is my most productive season (!). For those of you who are troubled by the (relative) lack of history and politics books, please know that my professional reading tends to be articles in academic journals. I try not to waste my time on crummy books, so nearly all of these books are good reads.

Without further ado, here is my 2007 life in books.

January
Jane Austen Mansfield Park
Joan Didion The Year of Magical Thinking
E.M. Forster Howards End

February
E.M. Forster A Room with a View
Nicole Krauss The History of Love
Paul Gordon Lauren The Evolution of International Human Rights
Laura Moriarty The Center of Everything
Mary Ann Glendon A World Made New
Sue Monk Kidd The Secret Life of Bees

March
Elizabeth von Arnim The Enchanted April
Eireann Corrigan Ordinary Ghosts
Bill Bryson A Walk in the Woods
Tim Cockey Murder in the Hearse Degree

April
Dave King The Ha Ha
Tanuja Desai Hidier born confused

May
Miss Read At Home in Thrush Green
Alan Brennert Moloka'i
Miss Read Affairs at Thrush Green

June
Miss Read Friends at Thrush Green
Angela Thirkell Peace Breaks Out
Elizabeth George With No One as Witness
Joyce Carol Oates Missing Mom
Bailey White Mama Makes Up Her Mind and Other Dangers of
Southern Living
Miss Read Village School
Jerrold M. Packard Victoria's Daughters

July
Ann Patchett Bel Canto
Zadie Smith On Beauty
Hazel Holt Mrs. Malory and a Death in the Family
Miss Read Village Centenary
Lucy Grealy Autobiography of a Face
Ann Patchett Truth and Beauty
Janet Evanovich Twelve Sharp
Alexander McCall Smith In the Company of Cheerful Ladies
Miss Read Summer at Fairacre
JK Rowling Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Bailey White Sleeping at the Starlight Motel

August
Lisa See Snow Flower and the Secret Fan
Miss Read Village Diary
Miss Read Storm in the Village
Jhumpa Lahiri Interpreter of Maladies
Miss Read Over the Gate
Diane Mott Davidson Dark Tort
Miss Read Fairacre Festival
Miss Read Village Centenary
Michael Malone Time's Witness
Khaled Hosseini A Thousand Splendid Suns

September
Al Gore The Assault on Reason
Miss Read Mrs. Pringle of Fairacre
Michael Malone Uncivil Seasons
Miss Read Changes at Fairacre

October
Michael Malone Handling Sin
Elizabeth Gilbert eat, pray, love
Cynthia Voigt Homecoming
Isabel Miller Patience & Sarah

November
Ferrol Sams Run With the Horseman
Amy Tan The Bonesetter's Daughter
William Anderson Laura Ingalls Wilder: A Biography
Sarah Vowell Assassination Vacation
Ferrol Sams The Whisper of the River

December
Willa Cather My Antonia
Alice Taylor An Irish Country Christmas
Laura Ingalls Wilder A Little House Christmas: Holiday Stories
from the Little House Books
Ferrol Sams When all the World was Young
Ian McEwan Atonement

Persuasion

Last month, the second graders in JT's class wrote a persuasive letter to their parents. Grateful that JT wasn't seeking to persuade me to buy him a motorcycle or a pet snake, I quickly agreed to his request: a family night of games and/or movies.

Obviously, I agreed because it would give me yet another opportunity to play Set.

We agreed to designate Friday night as our family night. So last night was our inaugural family night, featuring grilled cheese sandwiches and an Indiana Jones movie. And as you can see, JT and the cats were very satisfied with the arrangement.

And I'm just glad that we don't have a pet iguana in our future.

And the Winner(s) Will Be.........

The Iowa caucus is this evening, starting around 7 pm central time. By the end of the night, each party will have some winners and losers, though the power and meaning of the caucus may not be clear until a few months from now.

My government classes and I have been talking, watching the polls, and tracking the process. Setting aside our sense that the Iowa caucus may very well be an albatross around the neck of the political process (that's a post for a later date), today we made our predictions for the top three vote-getters in the Hawkeye state.

For the Democrats, we see close margins.....29, 27, 25...or something like that. For the Republicans, we see Huckabee and Romney close, with McCain in the doubles.

We agree that an Edwards victory in the Democratic camp means that this race is a real contest between the big three (Obama, Clinton, and Edwards). Edwards looks to have the most to gain tonight and, if she comes in third, Clinton will have the most to lose.

For the GOP, we see Rudy Giuliani coming in nearly at the end of the pack, predictable since he hasn't really campaigned in Iowa, but a hard narrative to combat with New Hampshire and South Carolina so close on the heels of the caucus. Huckabee needs to be in the top two. For Romney, a distant second to Huckabee could hurt. McCain seems to have little to lose in Iowa (he didn't work that hard in the state), but much to gain if he places in the top three.

Let the voting begin.

Update: We were pretty accurate in our estimates and, in the day-after analysis we are impressed with both the breadth and the depth of the Obama victory. He's got 5 days to capitalize on the victory. As for Huckabee, he's got the advantage of low expectations in New Hampshire. But after that, he and his campaign must be ready for a big national contest.

Forewarned

This afternoon, my son spelled out his name in Revolutionary War army men.

Enough said.

January 1

It's the 1st of the month and so my backyard tree is back. We've had some windy days in the last month and my big tree has lost some branches......a normal development but one that finds me with a sizable pile of dead wood in my backyard (astute observers will note that a good number of leaves remain to be raked.....but that's a problem for another day). JT and I collected the branches the other day and we'll set the pile aside for a summer fire in the backyard firepit.

It's nice to look forward to summer on a cold day like this.