House Party

It's election morning and it seems fitting to offer up a few predictions of the outcome.

For starters, the Democrats look poised to gain the majority in the House for the first time since 1994. Among other things, that will give us the first woman Speaker of the House in Representative Nancy Pelosi. I predict that the Democrats will gain 22 seats today. It will be a narrow majority, but it's still a majority. And as far as historical trends are concerned, it's significant as party gains in the House have generally been slim for the past 20 years (not counting the 54-seat wave of '94).

In the Senate, the Democrats need to take six states to get a majority. That's a tough order. First off, they must hold New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington, three races that were in play. They will do so. It seems pretty clear that they'll take Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and Missouri. But that's only a net gain of three. The Montana race has narrowed in the last few days but that race will also go to the Democrats. Larry Sabato of UVA thinks that Jim Webb will bring the Virginia Senate to the Democrats. If Sabato is right, and Stuart Rothenberg seems to think he is, that brings the magic total to 6. So the night will hinge on Virgina, Montana, and Missouri. It's a tall order but I think it's going to happen.