What's the Matter with Mitt?

A few weeks ago, Nate Silver wrote an unsettling article that looked at the electoral numbers and then predicted that President Barack Obama would surely lose his re-election bid to GOP candidate Mitt Romney.  The foundation of Silver's prediction was his conclusion that an incumbent president with moderate approval ratings and slow (or non-existent) economic growth was electorally vulnerable if his opponent was a moderate.  Fair enough, as far as it goes.  It's certainly reasonable to conclude that an incumbent president confronted by economic difficulties is in a tough spot.  But Silver's argument depends on his understanding that of course Republican primary voters will suit up and do what they always do: choose the most electable candidate.

Enter Mitt Romney.  He's tan, rested, and ready.  And Silver surmised what many other observers on both the left and right have concluded…..surely, the GOP nomination will go to Romney. 

Surely.

At the time the Silver article was published, Texas Governor Rick Perry was coming to the end of his tour as the Republican chosen one.  Since then, Herman Cain has done a few laps as the GOP leader.  In the last few weeks, Newt Gingrich is ascendant.  Mitt Romney has yet to do his star turn.  I'm wondering if he ever will.

There is a combination of peculiar factors at work here.  First, is the degree of dissatisfaction among Republican primary voters.  They agree that they don't like Obama, but after that there doesn't seem to be a consistent narrative about what they'd like instead.  The Tea Party Republican voters seem to prefer new, inexperienced candidates.  Fiscal conservative Republicans (a la former Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson) haven't been at home in the party for years; they're not really active players in the primary process.  Social conservatives are as coherent as ever, but they viscerally reject any degree of seeming moderation on their favored trifecta of anti-abortion, anti-gay, overtly religious positions. 

Though the fiscal conservatives might could muster a half-hearted cheer on behalf of Romney, the other groups of GOP primary voters just aren't enthusiastic.  So Mitt Romney is not yet able to seal the deal.  As of this writing, Herman Cain has suspended his campaign, largely due to questions about sexual impropriety and the attendant fund-raising difficulties he's experiencing.  But the candidate benefitting from Cain's collapse isn't family-man Romney.  Nope, it's the thrice-married, perennially unfaithful, scandal-ridden former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

Huh?

I suppose that Romney and his folks will patiently wait this mess out, hopeful that a solid showing in the Iowa Caucus, followed by a victory in the New Hampshire primary, will give his campaign the boost it desperately needs.  But I'm not inclined to agree.  I look at Romney's opposition for the GOP nomination and can only conclude that if Mitt hasn't yet managed to dispatch Perry, Cain, or Gingrich because of his own obvious skill and strength as a candidate, then I'm not inclined to believe that he ever will.