Before I make a New Hampshire prediction, it seems appropriate that I acknowledge the mess that was Iowa.
In terms of my own prediction, I was off-base. I didn’t see Buttigieg trending upward as significantly as he did; neither did I see Biden tanking. The confusion on the evening of the caucus was nothing compared to the nonsense which followed. It’s especially frustrating to have such a chaotic start to a campaign in which we - the Democrats - absolutely must demonstrate measured competence. Given the generally good economic numbers, the only way to beat Trump will be to hammer home his failures as a role model. The examples here are legion - prayer breakfast, Twitter, any rally speech he gives - but we cannot take it for granted that the nation will reject Trump because he’s a debacle of a human being.
In light of the mess that followed the Iowa voting, it seems more hopeful than ever that the Iowa Caucus has died. It should do so, largely because Iowa may be a nice place but it is in no way representative of the nation and the caucus process, where voters are expected to hang out for 90 minutes on a cold Winter evening, is not very democratic. Parents without childcare may not attend; Iowans with jobs to work that night are not included. Running in Iowa costs campaigns loads of cash when it works; when it doesn’t, it’s a huge waste of time and resources. It’s time to be done with it.
New Hampshire shows promise as a more organized affair though, like Iowa, it’s a costly and unrepresentative contest. It appears that Buttigieg got more of a boost out of Iowa than Sanders, largely because exceeding expectations will do that for a candidate.
I think that New Hampshire will be a Sanders win. Buttigieg and Warren will follow at second and third respectively. I think Klobuchar will come in fourth and Biden will come in fifth, literally limping his way into Nevada (another caucus - yikes!) and then South Carolina.
Here we go……
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