Same Sex Marriage: October Surprise?

In the aftermath of the New Jersey Supreme Court ruling instructing the state legislature to make arrangements to allow same-sex couples to have the rights of marriage (if not the name), there have been some politicians eager to exploit the moment.

Mostly this is Republicans, hoping to use the issue of same-sex marriage to motivate the base to turn out and vote. Turn out is always a concern for both parties and in a year when their president has an approval rating in the dumper, and anti-Republican sentiment is on the rise, the GOP wants to get all of their supporters to the polls. Putting on a big scare about same-sex marriage might help to make that happen.

So as we head into the final 10 days, I'd like to profile a few of the key races where the NJ ruling might have the effect of helping out Republican candidates.

In the very competitive Tennessee Senate race, both candidates oppose gay marriage. Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford both say that they will vote in favor of a proposed amendment to the Tennessee constitution that bans same sex marriage. Corker has had the lead in most polls of this race, but usually that lead is razor-slim and within the margin of error. In the last two weeks, Ford closed that lead. If the NJ ruling motivates the Republican base, they will turn out in Tennessee and cast ballots for Bob Corker. Tennessee allows early voting so folks are hitting the polls right now in the Volunteer state. Will this issue bring a few more Corker supporters to the polls?

In New Jersey, there has been relatively little backlash on the same-sex marriage front. Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. both say civil unions for same-sex couples are fine with them. But the ruling could motivate the most conservative Republicans in the state (and yes there are a few) to come out and cast a ballot for Kean as the lesser-of-two-evils candidate. This is a tight race to begin with and Menendez is barely holding on to the seat right now. Will the NJ ruling, just 13 days before the election, seal the deal in Kean's favor?

In Iowa 03, in the House race between incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell, and Republican state Senate President Jeff Lombardi, same-sex marriage is on the table. For starters, there is currently a lawsuit seeking same-sex marriage in the Iowa. Same sex marriage is not real popular with Iowa voters and though both Boswell and Lombardi oppose it, the concern here is about getting hard-core conservatives to the polls on election day. Though he hasn't been all that popular on the campaign trail this fall, President Bush was out for Lombardi on Thursday, the day after the NJ ruling. And in his appearance Bush called on Iowans to support Lombardi because he will help to oppose same-sex marriage and liberal courts. Boswell is one of the few House Democrats in trouble this fall and the NJ ruling could hurt him.

On Saturday, President Bush hit the stump in Indiana 09, hoping to help out incumbent Republican Mike Sodrel, who is facing a challenge by Democrat Baron Hill, a former congressman who is making a comeback bid. As was the case in Iowa, Bush invoked the NJ ruling, asking voters to return Sodrel to Congress to help protect marriage. Hill had opened a very slight lead over Sodrel in the past two weeks. But Bush was there to shore-up the conservative base. Will the base turn out and support Sodrel?

The good news here is that there aren't that many races likely to be effected by the ruling in New Jersey. But the margins in the House and Senate are slim and if the Democrats want to take control, every race counts. So when the Democrats look for the six pick-ups they need to take control in the Senate and the fifteen seats they need to take the House, these races might matter.

My prediction is that Corker will win in Tennessee and I think that Kean will also score an upset in New Jersey. Boswell will hold on in Iowa, but it will be close. Hill will win in Indiana, because he's run an excellent campaign and hasn't slipped up.

10/31 update: Menendez has just started a serious ad blitz in NJ and Kean has yet to respond. If Kean doesn't get on the air soon, Menendez will win this race.