All Politics, All the Time: Prediction Edition

JT and I have already cast our ballot. That's my boy's finger on the Barack Obama button in my local voting booth early this morning. I want him to remember the pride of that moment for the rest of his life. I know that I will.

Read on for my predictions for the outcome of today's election, including some of the key congressional races of the day.

There are 435 seats in the House. Democrats currently control 235 seats; the GOP controls 199 seats. 1 seat is currently vacant, the result of the death of Representative Stephanie Tubbs-Jones in late August. All 435 of these seats are up for grabs this fall. Of the seats open because of retirement or folks seeking higher office, there are 7 open Democratic seats and 29 open Republican seats, so the odds tip in favor of the Democratic party continuing to hold the majority in the House. I predict a final balance of 260 Democrats and 175 Republicans in the House.

In the Senate, with 100 seats, the margin is slimmer. Technically speaking, both parties control 49 seats. Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut currently caucuses with the Democrats, as does Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. That gives the Democrats the edge in terms of committee chairs, with a functional 51-49 split. There are 35 seats up for election in the Senate this fall (both seats in Mississippi are up....see below for details). Of those races, 10 looked competitive as of September. As the election neared, 2 more became competitive, for a total of 12 critical races. And here the odds are intriguing: 11 of those at-risk seats belong to incumbent Republicans; only 1 incumbent Democrat is similarly uncomfortable. I predict a net Democratic gain of 9 seats, with final totals of 59 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders) and 40 Republicans, plus Joe Lieberman of Connecticut as the lonely Independent.

As it turns out, there is also a presidential race tomorrow. Who knew? I predict an Obama victory and I'll put our money where my (big) mouth is. The Electoral College will see Obama with 364 votes to McCain's 174. As to national vote percentages, there I expect to see the depth of the Obama victory with Obama scoring 51.5% of the national popular vote to McCain's 45.5%; the remaining 3% will be split by the third party candidates.

HOUSE

1. Alaska - AL: The Land of the Midnight Sun has only one seat in the House so election to it means running statewide. That's one of many reasons that Republican Don Young has been in the seat since winning a special election in 1973. This year, he's caught up in the Stevens scandal (see below) and he's vulnerable to Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, the State Senate Minority Leader. It's a Democratic year in Alaska and Democrat Berkowitz will win. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

2. Alabama – 02: Alabama Republican Representative Terry Everett is retiring from the House this year. He hopes to turn over his seat to Republican Jay Love, a state representative and ex-restaurant owner. But popular Montgomery Mayor and attorney, Democrat Bobby Bright, will ride the tail of high African-American turnout in south Alabama and he will win. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

3. Alabama – 05: Democratic incumbent Bud Cramer is retiring from Congress. Republican businessman Wayne Parker, the 1994 and 1996 nominee for this race is hoping that 2008 will prove his lucky year. It's not to be. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator, local physician, and veteran will hold the seat for the Democratic party.

4. Colorado – 04: Marilyn Musgrave has been a cultural warrior in Colorado politics; a proudly outspoken Republican social conservative. But in her most recent television ads asking the voters for a 4th term in the House, Musgrave doesn't mention that she's a Republican. More than anything else, that's a sign that Colorado-04 is up for grabs this year. Democrat Betsy Markey, who served as Democratic Senator Ken Salazar's regional director in the district and has business connections in northern and eastern Colorado, is thinking that this district can be plucked on behalf of the Democrats. And Markey is correct about that. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

5. Florida – 21: GOP Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-American representative for this Miami-area district, has been in the U.S. House since 1993. A lawyer and state legislator before he won the seat, Diaz-Balart has always gathered the support of the local Cuban-American community. But this year the Cubanos in Florida - 21 may select another of their own, Democrat Raul Martinez, the mayor of Hialeah and publisher of the Spanish newspaper El Sol de Hialeah. Democrat Martinez will prevail. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

6. Florida – 25: The news isn't much better for another member of the Diaz-Balart family, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is in his third term representing this Miami-area district. After serving for 14 years in the Florida state legislature, Diaz-Balart was elected to the House in 2002. His challenger is Democrat Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic chair and former head of Exodus Project, a successful refugee resettlement program. Garcia is a formidable opponent and will do his part to unseat the Diaz-Balart family, prevailing in Florida – 25. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

7. Kansas – 02: Frosh Representative Nancy Boyden was first elected to the House in 2006, with a wave of new Democrats who arrived that year. She represents most of eastern Kansas, including Topeka, Leavenworth, and Manhattan. She is well-liked in the state but Democrats never get an easy run is eastern Kansas and Republican Lynn Jenkins, a two-term Kansas State Treasurer ad ex-state representative, is hoping to send Boyden home. But 2008 is another good year for Democrats and Boyden will prevail. But it will be close.

8. Louisiana – 06: This race features a good-old-fashioned Southern wrestling match of partisan politics. The incumbent Democrat, Don Cazayoux, served in the Louisiana state house for three terms before he won election to the House in a May '08 special election held after the retirement of incumbent Representative Richard Baker. Cazayox's win was a bit of surprise – LA-06 has been held by the Republican party for years. Enter GOP state senator and physician Bill Cassidy, campaigning on a platform of keeping the GOP in charge of LA-06. Will raising the Republican flag be a mistake this election year? It will indeed. Cazayoux will hold in this close contest.

9. New Hampshire – 01: Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is a frosh member of the House seeking re-election. Shea-Porter is the first woman the Granite State has sent to federal office. And the man she beat in 2006? That would be GOP-nominee Jeb Bradley, who is seeking a re-match this year. The race has been a tense affair but New Hampshire voters are feeling Democratic and they will return Shea-Porter to the House.

10. New Mexico – 01: New Mexico found all three of its House members seeking to be their party's nominee for the open Senate seat. So this seat, which currently belongs to Republican Heather Wilson, is open. Two young, dynamic, and popular leaders are vying to get the seat. Republican Darren White is the current Bernalilo County Sheriff and a former Secretary of Public Safety. He's also a veteran. Democrat Martin Heinrich is a former director of an environmental non-profit, an appointee to the New Mexico Natural Resources Board, and a current member of the Albuquerque City Council. Democrat Heinrich will prevail. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

11. Ohio – 01: Republican Steve Chabot has represented Ohio-01 since 1994. The district, in southern Ohio, includes Cincinnati and has been reliably Republican for the last 15 years. But the GOP has some troubles in Ohio this year and Democrat Steve Driehaus, a Peace Corp veteran, the state house minority whip, and a community development consultant, is under the impression that Chabot is vulnerable. Ohio is also a presidential swing state this year but that won't hurt Chabot, who will hold in a very close contest.

12. Ohio – 15: Republican Deb Pryce has run in tight races for most of her career in the House. This year she's retiring and the seat is up for grabs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran against Pryce in 2006, is in the race this year. Kilroy has name recognition in the district as a result of her previous run and her service as Franklin County Commissioner and on the Columbus School Board. Republican Steve Stivers, a state senator and Desert Storm War veteran, is hoping to hold the 15th for his party. This isn't his year and Kilroy will be headed to Washington, D.C. This race is a Democratic pick-up.






13. Pennsylvania – 10: Frosh representative Chris Carney won this district in 2006, one of a number of Democrats who swept into the House that year. Carney is a Navy Reservist and was a professor at Penn State at Scranton before he went to D.C. His opponent this year is businessman Chris Hackett. Pennsylvania-10 is a classical swing district in a swing state and Carney has served the district well. He will win the race.

SENATE

1. Alaska: Who knew that Alaska would become the focus of national politics in this year's election? Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens has been serving Alaska in the Senate since 1968, when he was appointed to serve the remaining term of his deceased predecessor. Since then, Stevens has been elected to 6 full terms on his own. This year, Stevens began the campaign under suspicion of a federal indictment for influence peddling. Stevens' ethical troubles made the race attractive to Democrats, who don't often win state-wide office in Alaska. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is hoping to change that. The jury convicted Stevens on all seven charges. Ouch. Begich is headed to Washington D.C. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

2. Colorado: Incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard is retiring. Two well-known Coloradons are facing off to replace him. The Democrat is Mark Udall, a former member of the State House, a current member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the son of Mo Udall, who served in the Colorado House delegation for 30 years. Udall is running against Republican Bob Schaffer, a former member of the Colorado State Senate, a 3-term ex-member of Congress, a current member of the Colorado State Board of Education and an '04 candidate for the Senate. Udall will prevail quite handily. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

3. Louisiana: Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu is the only incumbent Democratic Senator expected to face a tough contest this fall. For a while it seemed that Landrieu might lose to Republican John Kennedy, the state's current Treasurer and a former Democrat. But things have evened out lately and Democrat Landrieu will prevail.

4. Minnesota: Republican Senator Norm Coleman is near the end of his first term in the Senate and he's struggled to remain popular in the state. Helping to pound the nails in his coffin is Democrat Al Franken, a native Minnesotan and former SNL actor, with a long-standing interest in politics. Franken has been campaigning for the seat for nearly two years. Gumming up the works is former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley, running as an Independent. Polls show this race to be tight, and both Coleman and Franken have taken a turn as the leader. A.P. Gov't expects this to be a very close race, but we give the narrow edge to Democrat Franken. This race is a Democratic pick-up.



5. Mississippi: Republican Trent Lott retired from the Senate last year and Republican Governor Haley Barbour appointed Republican Roger Wicker to serve until an election could be held. Wicker is seeking to hold the seat, facing off against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi Governor. Wicker and Musgrove are seeking to earn the seat for two more years. In the other Mississippi seat, incumbent Senator Thad Cochrane is expected to coast to victory. And the GOP will hold both Mississippi seats; Wicker will prevail.

6. New Hampshire: This year, the Granite State is being touted as a swing state for the presidential race. That prospect, a function of the state's increasing friendliness to Democrats, has placed incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu in a tough spot. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was the first woman to be elected Governor in the Granite State; she served for two terms and was well-liked. New Hampshire is Obama territory this year and Shaheen will benefit from that and her own track record of Granite State popularity. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

7. North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is seeking a second term as a Tarheel Senator and she started the race with a lead. But she's facing a tough challenger in the form of Democrat Kay Hagan, who has served in the state Senate for 10 years. Hagan is well-respected and well-liked in the state and Dole made some serious miscalculations in the last few weeks. Democrat Hagen will be headed to the Senate tonight. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

8. New Mexico: The retirement of incumbent Republican senator Pete Domenici has opened up an opportunity for another member of the Udall family, Democrat Tom Udall, son of conservationist Stewart Udall. Udall is facing off against Republican Tom Pearce. Both Udall and Pearce currently represent New Mexico in the U.S. House and both are well-liked. But it's a Democratic night and the Udalls can go ahead and plan a family reunion for Washington D.C. as Democrat Tom Udall joins his cousin Mark in the Senate.

9. Oregon: Republican incumbent Senator Gordon Smith is a centrist who is well-respected in his home state. In any other year, that would be enough to get him re-elected. But this isn't any other year and Oregon is expected to go big for Obama tonight. That makes the Senate race much more competitive and Democratic candidate and Oregon State House Speaker Jeff Merkely has taken advantage of the surge in his party's favor. Look for Merkely to oust Smith from the Senate tonight. This race is a Democratic pick-up.

10. Virginia: Republican incumbent Senator John Warner is retiring from office, leaving this seat up for grabs. One reason that Virginia has made a lot of presidential swing state lists has been the success of Democrat Mark Warner (no relation) in the Old Dominion. Warner was a popular Governor; these days he's seeking the Senate running against Republican Jim Gilmore, also a former Governor. Democrat Warner will coast to victory in the Old Dominion. This race is a Democratic pick-up.


Late-Breaking states:

Kentucky: The Blue Grass state has been electing Republican Mitch McConnell to the U.S. Senate for nearly as long as they've been growing blue grass (okay, only since 1984). He is the Senate Minority Leader and was widely expected to coast to an easy re-election victory. Enter Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a zillionaire healthcare executive who has deep pockets from which he happily funded his campaign. It's been a costly race and McConnell has found it to be far more competitive than he expected. The Democrats would dearly love to oust McConnell, if only for the symbolic value of kicking Republican leadership to the curb. Lunsford is a good candidate but he won't be good enough. Look for McConnell to score a slim victory tonight.


Georgia: Six years ago, Republican Saxby Chambliss won election to the Senate by arguing that the Democratic incumbent, Vietnam vet and triple amputee Max Cleland, wasn't patriotic. The Chambliss victory was a bitter pill for Democrats nation-wide because Cleland was such a decent man. Those very same Democrats are hoping that karma comes calling tonight, in the form of Democrat Jim Martin, a former state representative who has suddenly come within striking distance of Chambliss. High Obama turnout will be the swing factor in Georgia tonight and it will propel Democrat Martin to a first place finish. Georgia law requires him to win 50% + 1 to claim the seat. With a Libertarian on the ballot, that's a little more difficult to predict. This race will be a Democratic pick-up, though it may not be until the December runoff that Martin is the confirmed victor.