Tuesday, April 05, 2016

On Wisconsin

By now you’ve have to be living under a rock to have missed out on the fact that Wisconsin primary voters are typically the sort to support the party leaders in their primary voting.  This is the responsible Midwest, after all.  But this year’s Wisconsin voter has had about enough of the nonsense that is the current GOP contest (see: responsible Midwest) and the state is expected to come in strong for Ted Cruz, as part of the state’s “anyone but Trump” sentiment.  The Cruz support is less about Cruz (he’s not exactly a moderate in the Wisconsin GOP tradition) and more an expression of the anti-Trump sentiment, an idea that has been sustained by the state’s still-popular Republican governor (and also-ran), Scott Walker.    T-rump will likely offer a terrific excuse for his unexpected loss to Lyin’ Ted and that may very well be the news of the evening.

Meanwhile, Democratic Badgers don’t wish to be left out of the unexpected news category and they are looking to come in for Bernie Sanders.  The Sanders support is likely a function of the state’s strong college student demographic, labor voters, and Sanders recent momentum, though I wouldn’t expect the victory to be overwhelming.

So let’s talk numbers.

I expect that Sanders will come up with a 3 point margin of victory, right around 51% to Clinton’s 48%.  Not exactly a burning victory, but enough to keep Sanders’ coffers full for the next few weeks as the two of them duke it out for victory in New York state on April 19.

Meanwhile, over in the party that Lincoln built (hard to believe….my condolences to Mr. Lincoln) Cruz will score a victory with 42% of the vote.  His opponents combined will be over 50%, with Kasich holding steady at 20% and Trump at 34%.  It’s notable that this is invariably the case for Republican voting this season; a sign that the party is truly balkanized.  New York voters (and their values!) are also the next step on the GOP crazy train.  

But until then, it’s your day, Wisconsin.  Pass around the cheese curds and let's see how this plays out.

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