Iowa Caucus Predictions

Today is the day!  More accurately, I suppose, tonight is the Iowa Caucus.  In the current Real Clear Politics average, Sanders is ascendent, and I think he will win Iowa tonight.  But how do the rest stack up?  

First round voting starts at 7 pm Iowa time.  Iowa’s caucus rules permit caucus-goers whose first choice does not garner 15% in the first round of voting to cast a second vote.  

I think that Klobuchar will come in 5th and it’s where her voters will go on second vote that interests me.  She’s a moderate and midwesterner, so Biden and Buttigieg are the most likely places for her voters to go.  But she’s also a woman, so Warren should pick up some of Klobuchar’s supporters.  I think Warren picks up more than Buttigieg and that places her third when the evening is done.  Biden will get more of the Klobuchar voters than Sanders at second vote but it won't be enough to overcome the Sanders momentum.

So I think the final vote comes in as follows:

Sanders

Biden

Warren 

Buttigieg

And then we’re off to New Hampshire.  Predictions for the Granite State will be next week.  It’s nice to be underway, y’all, and I am keeping my eye on the prize: a blue White House in November.